Europeans, Ukraine, Dilemma

Introduction

Over the last 12 months the Europeans have come to the conclusion that their relationship with the Untied States of America (USA) has changed significantly in many ways. It appears that the Europeans have realised that the support that the USA has given over the past 80 years, is decreasing due to USA internal policy changes. This is related to the relationship with Europe, including the approach to the Ukraine situation and other matters. Many European Leaders of the larger Countries, such as Germany, France Italy Spain part of the European Union and the United Kingdom are ensuring that their input to matters such as Ukraine are taken into consideration. By doing so this is causing a European dilemma of the future relationship with the USA.

The Ukraine Situation

The map above shows the Ukraine/Russia situation as at 29 November 2025. Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, however the other occupied areas is as a result of the war since 2021. In the early part of the war Ukraine in 2021 pushed Russia out of the invasion areas in the north. Russia has gained little ground in the 4 regions ( Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk), over the past 2 years owing to the strong defence by the Ukrainians. In addition to these front lines, Russia has and still is launching significant air assaults on civilian accommodation, Energy Facilities and Infrastructure. It was believed by Russia that they could take all of Ukraine very quickly in 2021. They were wrong so they decided they want all of the 4 regions and Crimea for the time being.

European and USA Support

The Ukrainians had significant support including weapons ammunition, air defence systems and intelligence at the start of the war in 2021 from the USA, UK, EU and others allowing the Ukrainians to defend themselves and push the Russian invaders in the north out of Ukraine and back into Russia. In the previous USA Administration the USA played a significant role in the support function. However the new USA Administration’s policy on Ukraine has impacted the support chain, requiring the European to bare more of the support function. Another major change by the USA is that they will sell weapons to Europe for them to distribute to Ukraine. The USA are also looking to have payment in time to come for the support provided by the previous administration (green) which at the time no payment was expected. The Europeans and the UK, on the other hand have and still are providing support Free Of Charge (FOC) to the Ukrainians.

Push For Peace

The recent additional movement for Russia to stop the war against Ukraine was by the USA and Russia’s 28 point plan being formulated without Ukraine or Europe being involved. This war involves Ukraine and Europe through its support. A meeting was called for by Europe and Ukraine as well as the USA in Geneva Switzerland. It was clear that the ’28 point Peace Plan’ originated from the demands of the Russians for all of their requirements to be met. However the Europeans and Ukraine insisted on some changes including the right of Ukraine to decide to apply for NATO membership in the longer term. It also had the right to have an army big enough to protect itself initially at a later date but with Security Guarantees from the USA and the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ headed by the UK and France. However, more importantly is the insistence by Russia for Ukraine to give up the territory and its people in the 4 Regions that Russia has not taken by force. The Ukrainians, Europeans, UK and the many members of the Coalition of the Willing do not agree that this should be done as these are fortified defence positions (Green).

The Forced Dilemma

As part of the dilemma the USA are trying to force this part and other parts of the so called ’28 point Peace Plan’ through and give Russia almost everything they want. This also includes removing all USA sanctions on Russia and allow the to join the G7 nations to G8. The real dilemma is if the Ukrainians, Europeans, UK and the many members of the Coalition of the Willing do not agree that this should be done and the Russians reject the Peace Plan and continues the war, what will the USA Administration do? It has been floated by the USA Administration that they would stop all weapons deliveries to Europe together with other support facilities like Intelligence information to Ukraine. They may also want repayment from Ukraine for the previous weapons and support much quicker. They would most certainly block any move for Ukraine to join NATO. It will also leave Europe including the UK and the Coalition of the Willing to continue support for Ukraine without the USA.

Is it Time for Europe to Lead

Europe including the UK have a collective decision to make, that is to accept that the USA is no longer a reliable partner, which has already been voiced by some European Countries Leaders. It is time for Europe to Lead and look out for themselves and Ukraine, in resisting Russia’s advancement and to support Ukraine to defend itself. In addition, Europe must defend its borders too. Many Leaders of the larger European Countries have recognised that fact already and are taking action to increase their defence requirements. This will of course include a reduced NATO maybe without the USA. However, even without the USA Europe must also continue to find a solution to stop the war in Ukraine as soon as possible to stop the huge loss of life on both sides. This will be difficult as Russia wants all of Ukraine not just the regions discussed and is not really interested in a Lasting Peace or Cease Fire. Militarily giving up the 4 Regions to Russia, will create a spring board to further attacks by Russia to gain full control of Ukraine.

Will Ukraine Be forced to Accept Regions Handover?

As I am composing this article as the Ukrainians are on the way to the USA for talks on the 28 Point Peace Plan with the USA Administration. This meeting appears to be the USA forcing Ukraine to accept all of terms including the Regions Handover to Russia. Whilst Ukraine wants peace they will have to decide the outcome of this meeting. Whilst they have the backing of all Europe, UK and other parties not to accept the Regions Handover, the Ukrainians are in a very difficult position. Although there is a promise of Security Guarantees, we have seen the USA ignore them like the Nonnuclear and the 2014 Russia take over of Crimea. Therefore even with the aid of the Europeans, if Russia attacks again, Ukraine will be on their own and Europe, UK and NATO Countries, especially Poland and the Balkens will be under threat by Russia. So there are two outcomes; Ukraine Signs Agreement under Duress and Russia Wins or Ukraine does Not Sign Agreement under Duress and War Goes on with possible Loss of USA Support.

Conclusion

This situation is a Dilemma for Ukraine, Europe, UK, Coalition of the Willing and NATO due to the USA who appears to favour Russia over their long time Allies to stop the War. All of the above except for Russia want to end this War but the current approach by the USA is Appeasement just like 1939 all over again. As we have seen that in the days to come there will be the likelihood of the 2 Options outlined above, both which are difficult ways forward. However, I feel that not signing the USA Russia Agreement sends a message to both, that Ukraine, Europe, UK, Coalition of the Willing and NATO will defend their Sovereignty and Borders whatever the cost against Russian Aggregation. God Help the Ukrainian People!