An Uncertain World

Introduction

This article read is long and complex as is the Uncertain World we live in.

I was born in February 1941 in Gateshead, England during World War Two (WWII) which was in its second year. At that time it was an ‘Uncertain World’ as we did not know the outcome of WWII. During this time a major part of Europe was under Nazi control and expanding. Great Britain was under constant bombing by the Nazi’s especially London called the Blitz. It was the Royal Air Force that blunted the daylight attacks, which forced most of the bombing to be done at night. However, it was uncertain whether Great Britain would be invaded by the Nazi’s. This uncertainty was in some respect predictable due to a war time period which was different to today’s ‘Uncertain World’.

Today’s Local Wars and Potential Conflicts

Today we have at least two local wars causing much uncertainty in the world. The major war between Ukraine and Russia started by Russia to try to gain full control Ukraine. The Israel and the Palestinians conflict in Gaza. In terms of international potential conflicts, the main Countries involved are Iran, Taiwan, North Korea. The main uncertainty is not the conflicts themselves but the ‘Political Reactions’ to these by the major world powers.

Political Reactions of the Local Wars

Most of the Uncertainty in the World is caused by the ‘Political Reactions’ of the USA, Europe, Russia and China, which are actively involved with current and potential conflicts. Let us look at the Political Reactions for the following:

Ukraine and Russia

The history of Ukraine/Russia relationship is a very complex one. However, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation from Russia. As part of that agreement Ukraine gave up its Nuclear Weapons. Ukraine was leaning towards becoming a European Union Member. There was much pro Russian unrest in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions which Russia took full advantage of 2014. They organized pro Russian Independence referendums. However, the Ukraine government Army and Pro Russian Fighters started the conflict. At the same time Russia Annexed Crimea. The USA and its Allies ‘Political Reactions’ were to apply Sanctions on Russia and to provide significant aid to Ukraine, including financial assistance, humanitarian supplies, and military equipment.  There was no offer from the USA to be involved militarily against Russia. To date the USA and Allies have not recognised the Crimea annexation.

On 21 February 2019, the Constitution of Ukraine was amended, to allow Ukraine a Sovereign Country to apply for membership in the European Union and NATO. On 21 April 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected president of Ukraine. In July 2020 Ukraine, and NATO members Poland and Lithuania signed a cooperation pact. On 2 February 2021, a Presidential Decree banned the Television broadcasting of the pro-Russian TV channels in Ukraine. The ‘Political Reactions’ were accepted by the USA and its Allies as Ukraine as a Sovereign Country could make its own decisions in accordance with their Constitution. However, Russia’s ‘Political Reactions’ was fury and it decided it could not accept Ukraine being part of the EU or NATO as they viewed Ukraine as being part of Russia like the Soviet Union days.

On Feb 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine in the East into Zaporizhia and Kherson and North East into Kyiv and Kharkiv from Belarus a Russian Ally. The initial attack in all areas was heroically repelled by Ukrainian Forces. Once again the USA under the President Biden administration and its Allies ‘Political Reactions’ decided not to get involved militarily against Russia but to provide a huge amount of Military Equipment and Ammunition to support the Ukrainian Forces to defend themselves against Russian aggression.

However , since President Trump and his administration took over in January 2025, there is a great deal of Uncertainty of the USA’s ‘Political Reactions’ in respect of the support for Ukraine. The Allies including the UK, Europe, Canada, Japan and others ‘Political Reactions’ is to continue and even increase the support for Ukraine including military equipment and ammunition. However, the USA, ‘Political Reactions’ to date has been driven by President Trump saying he wants Peace but at the same time he has stopped supporting with Military Aid and citicising Ukraine and has appeared to support the Russian, Putin’s, narrative. The Russians want to take over 20% of eastern Ukraine including Crimea, recognised as part of Russia, no Ukraine Military or NATO or EU membership , all accepted by the USA and the rest of the world to achieve Peace. Ukraine, UK, Europe and Allies do not accept this way forward. The initial USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ was to agree with Russia that Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO. The question now is, will the USA’s, ‘Political Reactions’ be, to withdraw support for Military and Financial Aid and as President Trump said recently “They hate each other, and they’re fighting in a park, and you try and pull them apart. They don’t want to be pulled. Sometimes you’re better off letting them fight for a while and then pulling them apart.” UK, Europe and Allies were disgusted at this ‘Political Reaction’ but have yet have to wait for more ‘Political Reactions’ from the USA and President Trump, which may determine, if Ukraine survives as Sovereign Country or eventually becomes part of Russia.

Israel and Palestinians

The Israel and Palestinians conflict is a even more Complex situation that the Ukrainian one. However they have one thing in common, History!!! This article refers to the situation between Israel and the Palestinians after the incursion of the Palestinian Hamas Group from the Gaza Strip crossed into Israel killing 1200 people and taking 250 hostages on October 7th 2023.

The ‘Political Reaction’ by 44 Countries including the USA and its Allies was swift in condemning this incursion in the strongest possible terms. The Israel Armed Forces retaliated by first of all carrying out Bombing Gaza and then sending Ground Troops into Gaza to go after Hamas and recover the Hostages. This was supported by the USA and Allies as a reasonable response to the Attack of October the 7th. It was thought that this would be a limited operation based upon a ‘Political Reaction’ of Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, but this turned into nightmare situation no one had really expected.

During the USA’s President Biden administration the USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ was to allow the Israeli action to continue with negotiations between Hamas and Israel regarding the return of the Hostages and Palestinian Prisoner swap. However, this was very slow and did not achieve the release of many Hostages. Over the past 2 years of the Hamas, Israeli War, the destruction of the Gaza Strip has been extensive with over 50,000 Palestinian Civilians including Children being killed and many more injured by Israel. Some living and deceased Hostages have been released but not all.

The President Trump administration ‘Political Reaction’ so far has continued the support for Israeli action but President Trump has made some very contentious suggestions, such as; ‘Moving all of the Palestinians out of Gaza and making the Gaza Strip the ‘Riviera of Gaza’. There has been continued effort for a Cease Fire and the release of all the Hostages living and deceased but without much success. The other major current situation is that Israel will not allow Humanitarian Aid including Food, Water and Medical Supplies into Gaza. It appears that the USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ is uncertain and is waiting for more details from President Trump and his administration.

Political Reactions of the Potential Conflicts

There are three areas of the world that have the Potential for Conflict, Taiwan and the South China Sea, North Korea and Iran and the ‘Political Reactions’ of those Countries involved.

Taiwan and the South China Sea

The ‘Political Reactions’ of China towards Taiwan and the South China Sea are paramount in this Potential Conflict. From the map below it will be seen that China claims that almost all of the South China Sea and Taiwan belongs to them (red line). This claim has been dismissed by the Worlds Courts, ruling that other Countries have jurisdiction over their own parts of the South China Sea, however China does not accept this ruling.

Taiwan was taken over from the Japanese after the WWII ended in 1945 by the Nationalist Republic of China (ROC) with the ROC Government moving out of China in 1949 due to the Communist (Mao Zedong) take over of China. It has never been ruled by the Communist China Government. However the ‘Political Reaction’ of the Communist China Government and its President Xi Jinping is adamant that Taiwan belongs to Communist China. Taiwan has it own Government and Armed Forces and is Autonomous operating under an agreed ‘One China Policy’ that allows Taiwan to operate separately but not as an Independent Country. However more recently President Xi Jinping’s ‘Political Reaction’ is increasingly aggressive surrounding Taiwan and involving frequent Military Drills and Exercises, including Simulated Attacks on the island, and intimidating Taiwan and its population against Independence moves.

During previous USA administrations the ‘Political Reaction’ was to provide Taiwan with Weapons and Aircraft for their defence and if necessary the USA and its Far East Allies would come to the aid of Taiwan if China attempted to invade. However, President Trump and his administrations ‘Political Reaction’ is uncertain in regard to coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of an attack by China. However, the provision of Military resources from the USA for Taiwan’s defence still seems to be ongoing.

In addition to the Taiwan Potential Conflict the associated South China Sea issues could also be a source of ‘Potential Conflict’ between China and the other Countries that have claims on their parts of the South China Sea. Another important issue is the right of Free Navigation and Passage by all other Nations in the world through the South China Sea. This of course applies to the USA and its Allies such as Japan and South Korea. At present the ‘Political Reaction’ to this situation by the USA and its Allies, is that all Commercial Shipping is not impeded and that, USA and its Allies Military Ships regularly undertake Freedom of Navigation through the Taiwan Straits and the whole of the South China Sea. China’s ‘Political Reaction’ is against the Freedom of Navigation movements through the South China Sea, and especially through the Taiwan Straits. It is again uncertain whether the USA’s President Trump’s administration will continue this ‘Political Reaction’.

Just recently the Chinese Navy has been undertaking Military Exercises close to the Australian and New Zealand recognised Sea Boundaries, without any notification to Australia and New Zealand. This has caused great concern especially regarding Commercial Air Travel and Shipping. Both these countries ‘Political Reaction’ has called for an explanation from China. Additionally, China is now operating its 2 Aircraft Carriers and supporting ships in the Pacific and South China Sea near Japan. A 3rd Chinese Aircraft Carrier the ‘Fujian’ is on Sea Trials increasing the Sea Power of China in the Far East. Japan is increasingly worried that the present USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ is not to confront China Militarily but cooperate with China Commercially.

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)

As a result of the Korean War in the 1950’s North Korea has been aligned with Communist China and Russia. Over the years North Korea has acquired Nuclear and Chemical weapons. In the last Trump Presidency 2018 he tried to pursued the young Kim Jong Un Leader of North Korea to dispense with his Nuclear Arsenal without success. President Trump has the idea that he is friends with Kim Jong Un. However, in 2025 the increasing good relationship between Kim Jong Un and President Putin has resulted in North Korea providing Military Men and Arms to Russia to fight against Ukraine. The USA Allies ‘Political Reaction’ to this, has been verbal condemning North Korea. However, there has been a great deal of uncertainty what the USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ has been due to so called friendship between President Trump and Kim Jong Un. Kim Jong Un’s ‘Political Reaction’ has to build up his Nuclear Weapons, Navy and Land Forces, which is creating the Potential for Conflict.

Islamic Republic of Iran

Iran also known as Persia is recognised as being the ‘Cradle of Civilisation’ being one of the oldest inhabited places on Earth. Iran is the most influential Countries in the Middle East supporting Proxies including Hamas, which opposes Israel. Recently there were Missile and Aircraft Attacks between Israel and Iran, however their was an agreement to stop further attacks on each other. To date they are not thought to possess a Nuclear Weapon but does have the means to do so. The USA and Allies ‘Political Reaction’ is to prevent Iran having a Nuclear Weapon. New talks are ongoing with Iran and the USA however, the outcome could develop into a major Conflict between Iran and the USA its Allies and Israel.

Uncertainty and the Political Reactions

We have seen that the Countries and their relationship with each other is creating a very Unstable Condition throughout the World. Since the re-election of President Trump that Uncertainty has appeared to increase due to his administrations ‘Political Reactions’. In addition the increased ‘Political Reaction’ by China and Russia in particular are also causing Uncertainty. With these major World Powers being almost directly opposed to each other the Possibility of Conflict between them is increased. We can only hope and pray that never happens.

Thank you for taking the time to read this complex and long article