Polarised World Order

Complicated Country Groupings

The world today is experiencing some very complicated Country groupings for different spheres of life on this earth. These include, Economic, Trade, Defence and Security Alliances and Cultural, that seem to overlap each other in many cases that does not make sense and complicates Countries relationships. One such Country that stands out is India, that has its fingers in all Groupings like others to come, as we shall see.

Economic Groupings G7 and BRICS

G7

From 1997 there was recognised Intergovernmental Organisation Economic Group based upon the US Dollar currency, called the ‘G8, including the USA, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Russia. However, in 2014 Russia was suspended due to the annexation of Crimea and withdrew permanently in 2017. The G7 in 2024 has about 780 million people (10%) of world population, 50% of net wealth and 30% of the worlds Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The G7 does not have a treaty and is based upon ‘leading democracies’ and ‘rule-based democratic order’. including Australia and South Korea. Those acting as observers are India, Indonesia, Poland and Spain.

BRICS

However in 2009 a new Intergovernmental Organisation Economic Group was formed called the ‘BRICS’, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, which has its own Central Banking System (New Development Bank (NDB)) and eventually with its own currency possibly based upon the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY), moving away from the US Dollar. It is also developing a new Inter-global Payment System (BRICS Pay) to replace the current G7 SWIFT system. BRICS in 2024 has 45% of the worlds population and 35% of the worlds Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Trading Currency Limitations

Whilst BRICS is developing its own in house Trading Rules much of the worlds trade is between the USA, Europe and other aligned Countries and China and BRICS countries. The G7 still hold the power of the US Dollar for almost all of their Trading Transactions. In addition, many of the BRICS Countries have significant Currency Reserves in US Dollars. It has to be remembered that the G7 are still the richest block with 30% of world GDP. I look at this situation as the G7 has the quality Countries and BRICS has the quantity of Countries that may bring pressures on China and the major BRICS countries who will need to support them. This support may well be in the form of Loans which the smaller Countries may not be able to repay and end up being subservient to the BRICS main Country, China.

Rapidly Expanding BRICS

BRICS is starting to expand by including many other Countries and is in discussions with even more at a meeting in Russia. Those that have been accepted as members are shown in the image below. However, recently in 2024 Argentina withdrew and Saudi Arabia is still considering ratifying joining.

Many other Countries wishing to become members are shown below. However many of these countries are not ‘leading democracies’ and ‘rule-based democratic order’ as the G7. In fact quite the opposite.

Geopolitical Rivals

The G7 and BRICS are now Geopolitical Rivals not only in terms of Economic Power but includes Trade, Cultural and far more complicated Defence and Security Alliances known as the ‘Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’ (SCO). The SCO is an Eurasian Multilateral Security and Defence Organisation. China is the primary executive body of the SCO based in Beijing.

Two countries stand out from the list above, India and Turkey, which have Defence Alliances with the G7 Countries. On 15 September 2021, India, Australia, the United Kingdom and the USA announced that they had formed AUKUS, a new mini-lateral grouping focused on security in the Indo-Pacific. Turkey is a major part of NATO which includes all of the G7 countries. The question must be where do the loyalties lie given a conflict between G7/NATO and the BRICS. This situation may also apply to smaller countries in SE Asia such as Thailand and Malaysia if they become part of the SCO.

New Axis Powers

In the WWII the axis powers were Germany, Italy and Japan, however today the new emerging Axis Powers include, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. This is very concerning for the NATO and associated Alliances, especially when North Korean Troops seconded by Russia are being readied for action against Ukraine. There will come a point in the Ukraine/Russia conflict when NATO and its Allies will have to decide its way forward to counteract the Russian actions. This will also depend on the outcome of the US Presidential and Government elections on the 5th November 2024.

Polarisation on Two Fronts

There are now two fronts of Polarisation, Economically G7 v BRICS and Militarily, NATO and Allies v New Axis Powers and those who are part of the BRICS SCO. This is becoming a very serious situation especially regarding Ukraine and the South China Sea and Taiwan tensions. As we have discussed previously where does India a major populous Democratic Country stand. India gets most of its Defence Equipment from Russia, it gets it Oil and Gas from Russia and much of its trade is with China and Russia. Therefore, how can India be in an Alliance with AUKUS given that a world conflict breaks out. This maybe also be the case with some of the smaller South East Asian Countries such as Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia who are, or want to become part of BRICS.

The G7, NATO, Europe and Allies Under Threat

Much of the immediate future of the G7 and Allies will depend upon the outcome of the USA Presidential Election. I am sure that the BRICS and Axis Powers would prefer Donald Trump to win. However most of the G7 and Allies would prefer Kamala Harris to win. The way things are shaping up Donald Trump may win which means that Ukraine will be sacrificed to Putin, Trumps friend and Xi Jinping will be pleased as Trump will also sacrifice Taiwan and the problems of the South China Sea. In doing so the Credibility of the G7 and Allies will diminish allowing the BRICS to expand and overtake the leading Role of the World. This will be devastating for Europe and NATO and Allies like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Philippines and South Korea especially related to North Korea another friend of Trumps. As my previous article says ‘Trump Win Goodbye USA’. More importantly Goodbye to Europe’s Security and Defence Capabilities and Way of Life thanks to Donald Trump and his Supporters. ‘God Help Us’.