Trump Win: Goodbye USA

Introduction

I am a British Senior Citizen. The following is my own personal opinion:

Trump is like a Pied Piper (a person who persuades a lot of other people to follow them or do something with them). The USA public who follow him is known as his base. The majority of these people are also members of the USA Republican Party. Even in the USA House of Representatives and the Senate many Republicans support him. Also on the USA main media outlets some pundits are very vocal in their support for Trump. Myself and millions of others ask WHY?

Convicted Criminal, Indicted and Habitual Falsifier

Trump is a Convicted Criminal, he has been Indicted of several crimes related to the last USA Presidential 2020 Election and has been found guilty for matters related to abuse of women. All of which he totally denies and calls them a “Witch Hunt”. He has no shame in telling false and misinformation statements about an array of subjects, in fact its part of his strategy to gain attention and sow confusion and mayhem.

Demeanour

The way in which Trump presents himself as a strong man punching his fist to the sky and strutting around as though he owns the world and everyone should bow to him is always evident. He expresses himself in a manner that in most cases is insulating and at times hurtful to less fortunate people, at the same time enjoying the positive responses of those listening to him. That makes his audience complicate in what he is saying . However, his base, Trump politicians and the pundits always try to say its nothing “its just the way Trump talks and behaves”. This is their way of justifying Trumps low class, unacceptable behaviour and speech.

USA a Divided Nation

Over the past 10 years the USA has become an increasingly divided nation, those supporting the Republican Party and those supporting the Democratic Party. Since the introduction of Trump into politics in 2014 this division has been increasing. Also the composition of the Republican Party has changed significantly with the more moderate party members being forced out and replaced by the Trump supporting members elected by the Republican Party electorate. This has increased the division of the USA into a Cult type following of Trump who now controls the Republican Party.

Threat to USA Democracy

Ever since the conclusion of the 2020 Presidential Election which Biden won, there has been a significant movement within the Republican Party and associates to portray the Election as ‘Stolen’. They also Invaded the USA Capitol on January 6th 2021 (known as an Insurrection) motivated by Trump, to try to stop the Presidential Election Certification. This resulted in deaths and injuries to the Police and others. However, Trumps Vice President Pence continued to Certify the Election in Congress, confirming Biden would be the next President.

Trump still did not accept the result and said would not Transfer the Presidential Power in a peaceful manner. Eventually, he had to relinquish Power but much later he was Indicted for Inciting the Insurrection on the Capitol Building and an attempted Coup.

The House of Representatives and Senate 2024 Elections

Before we consider the Presidential Election we must consider the Consequences of the House of Representatives called the ‘Congress’ with Congressmen and the ‘Senate’ with Senators. The 2024 Elections will have a major effect on the next 4 years of Government, who ever is elected President. At present the Congress is controlled by the Republicans (R) by a few seats and the Senate by the Democrats (D) by one seat. This makes it more difficult to pass laws but there is a system of ‘Checks and Balances’.

There will be several outcomes after the 2024 Elections: (1) Congress R and Senate D, (2) Congress D and Senate R, (3) Congress D and Senate D, (4) Congress R and Senate R. The latter (4) poses the most danger to the USA Democracy as I will explain later.

Likely Consequences of Trump Loss in 2024

What if Trump Looses the 2024 Presidential Election? The consequences for the USA could be very serious especially loosing to a Women, Kamala Harris the present Vice President of the USA. I can only speculate based upon the reaction to Trumps last failure to win the USA Presidency. The reaction may depend upon the margin of victory for Harris in terms of the Electoral College Votes (ECV’s). To win the Presidential you must have 270 of the 538 ECV’s.

If Harris exceeds 270 by a good margin it will be difficult for Trump to say the Election was Stolen, Unfair or not Valid. However, he could still contest the Election in Courts as he did last time even when Biden had 306 to Trumps 232 ECV’s . If, however, Harris just wins 270 with a small margin the Trump will definitely contest the Election in all sorts of ways, which could lead to violence by his supporters, similar if not the same as January 6th 2021.

Having said that, the Security around the Capitol Building and Lawmakers for Certification in 2024 will be substantial to prevent any entry into the Capitol Building or danger to Lawmakers. It is also possible that the Leader of the House of Representatives , being a Trump supporter, may also intervene before or during the Certification process.

Likely Consequences if Trump Wins in 2024

If trump gets 270 ECV’s or more he wins the Presidential Election and will become the President of the USA for a second term of 4 years in accordance with the USA Constitution. What happens next depends upon the outcome of the Congress and Senate Elections. If the Congress and Senate are controlled by the Republicans (4) then the USA is in great peril from Trump.

First, the Constitution could be changed to allow a President a third or forth consecutive terms or even worse that a president could serve for life just like the USA Supreme Court Members which is akin to being a Dictator. As Trump said “I will be a Dictator on Day One”.

Second, Women’s freedom to make their own decisions about their healthcare and abortion will be at huge risk as it is possible Trump will make abortion a Federal issue although he said he would not (can you Trust his words).

Third, Trump will threaten the existence of NATO or undermine its mandate by aligning himself with Dictators in charge of Russia, China, North Korea and others. This will cause immense friction with European and other Allies especially Canada and Australia. It will also affect the support for Ukraine as he brags he can get a finish to the war ‘in days’ by allowing the Russians to win by keeping Ukrainian Land and forbidding Ukraine from joining NATO. He may also give China the green light to invade Taiwan by backing off the defence agreement with the Island.

The USA Immigration Issue could be another that Trump could cause extreme disruption, threatening to deport millions of Immigrants not all illegal ones from the USA. Trump forgets that the USA has created its reputation for accepting Immigrants who have contributed substantially to the USA’s success over many years. He will continue to build his Mexican Border Wall which will also affect relations with Mexico.

Financially, Trump prefers to put Tariffs on imports which may threaten USA manufacturing or agriculture which will have a major negative impact on the USA economy. Trump blames the present inflation situation on the Democrats forgetting the rest of the world has inflationary problems not just the USA. Trump will also put the US Dollar at risk related to the BRICS Countries ambitions of eliminating the US Dollar in their trading pacts including Oil and Gas which has already started. The BRICS countries will no doubt put their own Tariffs on imported USA goods, which will have a negative impact on the USA economy.

Goodbye USA

If Trump Wins the 2024 Presidential Election, I believe, generally the USA will become a inward looking isolationist country divorced from the rest of the world, allowing China and others to become world leaders and to have increased influence in other countries such as Africa, South America, India and the Middle East. The European and other Alliances will be marginalised both in the Defence agreements and Trade agreements. The threat to the ‘USA Way of Life and Democracy’ will be real with the possibility of Trump becoming Dictatorial supported by the Congress and Senate controlled by Republicans. If Trump wins, supported by the Republican Congress and Senate the rest of the world can say Goodbye to the USA as we know today.

Footnote

If Trump gets elected President, that is a matter for the USA population. However it will also indicate that a substantial amount of people support the Rhetoric, the total lack of belief in the Rule of Law and the Low Class behaviour of a man like Trump, which is so sad for the USA’s Democracy and Decency. Lets hope that Trump never again sees the inside of the USA’s Presidential Oval Office for the sake of the USA people and the world.