What was the Trojan Horse; In Greek mythology The Trojan Horse was a large wooden Horse a supposedly Gift to The Turkish City of Troy. However it was filled with Greek Soldiers. Once the Horse was inside the City they attacked the City. Today’s meaning is classified as: A Person or Thing that Joins and Deceives a Group, Organisation or Country in order to Attack it from the inside.
USA desire for Greenland Ownership
In recent weeks and months we have seen that the USA President Donald J Trump has repeatedly said he wants the USA to own Greenland part of the The Kingdom of Denmark. He also stated he would use force against a NATO Ally to achieve it. However, the European NATO Nations stated that they would oppose any such move supporting Denmark and Greenland’s Sovereignty. This caused Trump to back off the use of Force but he is still having negotiations with Denmark and Greenland to achieve ownership. European NATO Nations are increasing their Military Presence in the Arctic Region for Security purposes. It should be noted that Greenland has the same Free State Run Medical / Hospital System as Denmark which adequately serves the 60,000 Greenland population. However due to the vast expanse visiting Hospitals is by Air Ambulance and Search and Rescue (SAR) Helicopters and Light and Business Type Aircraft which Greenland and Denmark have sufficient Air Support for this purpose.
Air Greenland Ambulance and Search and Rescue Helicopter
The USA Trumps Trojan Horse
Yesterday the devious Donald Trump said that he is sending a USA Military Hospital Ship to Greenland to take care of the many people in Greenland who are not being cared for there, by Greenland or Denmark. The USNS Mercy and the USNS Comfort are primarily for use to support Combat Situations and associated injured USA Troops. This is the USA’s TROJAN HORSE allowing the USA to use this as an excuse to get within Greenland and its population and say its important for the USA to own Greenland as they are desperate for USA’s help.
USNS Comfort Hospital Ship – The Trojan Horse
The Greenland Saga Is Not Yet Over
Denmark’s Status as a Sovereign State, the Denmark’s Prime Minister stressed repeatedly, Greenland was not up for negotiation and “it cannot be discussed, it cannot be changed”. After discussions between the USA President and the NATO General Secretary, it was said that a framework for a later discussion between the USA, Denmark and Greenland had been agreed. However, there were no details of this agreement. That is why there is still mistrust between the USA and Denmark that persists. It has always been the case that NATO Countries including the USA which already has a military base at Pituffik on the west coast of Greenland, can have access to Greenland for Collective Arctic Security but not for Greenland Ownership. This Saga is not yet over, which could split NATO wide open. That is why Greenland and Denmark and European NATO Nations should beware of the TROJAN HORSE especially in the Chinese Year of the HORSE.
For some time now there has been a growing divide between Democrats (Blue) and Republicans (Red) all over the USA. This divide has increased under the new Trump Administration, who unlike previous Administrations, are mainly ‘yes’ men and women with limited or no experience in government management selected by Trump. This divide widened in the last election (2024) where Trump won all the ‘purple’ swing States providing him with what he called a massive mandate for his policies. However, the difference in the popular vote was very small but Trump won that as well. In addition to this situation, the USA Supreme Court gave Trump almost total immunity for official actions by a President. This further enhanced Trumps position.
Congress Capitulation
Beside Trump winning the Presidential Election, the Senate flipped to Republican Majority and the House of Representatives had a small but important Republican Majority. Given this fact it is almost impossible for the Democrats to affect any meaningful opposition. In addition to the House and Senate being Republican, the Republicans gave Trump ‘Carte Blanche’ no opposition to actions he wanted to take. By doing this the normal ‘Guard Rails’ that Congress would provide for Presidential Actions vanished. Due to this Trump decided to by pass Congress and rule by ‘Executive Orders’ of which there have been a significant number.
Trumps Cabinet and Weaponised Departments
It is very difficult to find the words, for a bunch of soulless people, who have little or no experience of running government departments and are determined to follow Trumps every word and command, even if it is against the USA Constitution or the Rule of Law that has existed for hundreds of years. They have decimated some of these departments and have removed high ranking personnel with years of experience, if they dared to oppose Trumps wishes. These are extremely important departments like the Department of Defence, FBI, CIA, Department of Homeland Security and the Attorney General and Subordinates Offices. Only two reasonably experienced people are the Secretary of State and the Treasury Secretary.
Tariff Wars and Affordability
To the astonishment of the World Trump unilaterally placed Tariffs on most of the worlds Countries including European and World Allies. Trumps message to the USA people was “these countries will pay the Tariffs to the USA which will make a lot of money”. Totally false! its the USA people who will pay the Tariffs due to increased prices as its the USA Importers that have to pay the Tariffs then pass the cost onto the USA consumers. This in addition to inflation that is increasing prices known as affordability, when the USA people were promised by Trump before the election he “would bring prices crashing down from day one”.
Immigration Disaster
Whilst Trump has stopped immigration from the Southern Border his policy of routing Violent and Criminal Immigrants and deporting them has turned out to be a nightmare. Trump created Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) now refereed to as the Gestapo due to their lawless and horrific behaviour, including shooting to death USA citizens is a complete disaster and unbecoming of the USA.
Ukraine Support
Trumps statement that he would end Ukraine Russia war in his first day in office has turned out to be a great deal more difficult. Whilst he has a team, who now have to confer with the Ukraine and Europe trying to get a Peace agreement, he has stopped providing Support to Ukraine who now rely upon the Europeans. However, it has been noticeable that he favours Russian President to the Ukraine President including initially the Peace Plan. The War especially aerial attacks on Ukraine are intensifying.
Greenland and Destroying European Allies Trust
The latest debacle was caused by the insistence by Trump that the USA would take over Greenland by Force if necessary and he would put additional Tariffs on Countries that oppose him. However, most of the NATO and European Countries rejected his threats of Force and Tariffs. These threats have been withdrawn and some sort of agreement has been reached, but no body knows what it is. It appears to go back to the 1951 agreement with Denmark, regarding military bases. However more importantly this has severely fractured the USA relationship between NATO Countries in particular the major European Countries, UK and Canada. In addition, Trump made statements that “these NATO countries military did not fight on the front lines in Afghanistan”. This remark was countered by significant anger and disdain by the major NATO members and by some USA law makers. All of these actions by trump have greatly reduced Trust in the USA as and Ally.
Mid Term Election Fears
The normal Mid Term Congressional Election is Due in November 2026. As Trump is concerned that the Republicans will loose its majority to the Democrats in the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, he and his Republican followers are trying to avoid this by gerrymandering moves in States and other means which are threatening a Fair and Free Election. Trump even floating the idea that he would call the election off for several reasons, although this is not likely. If the Democrats seize control of the House of Representatives, this will no doubt curtail Trumps activities, which he recognises.
A Year of Turmoil for the USA People and Country
The worlds view, Friends and Foes of the USA has changed significantly over the past year. The Friends or Allies have experienced verbal attacks by Trump and his Administration trying to degrade their importance on the world stage. The USA Foes are delighted that the USA is breaking apart the coalition that has kept the world safe for the past 80 years. They also see opportunities to exploit these divisions caused by the Trumps ‘America First’ and the ‘Western Hemisphere Domination’ policy. The USA people are experiencing conditions that are far from normal and appear to becoming more Dictatorial ignoring the Rule of Law and lack of Congressional Control. The confrontational attitude towards the USA Allies is effecting the USA status as the ‘Leader of the Free World’ and the ‘Defender of Democracy’ which has been its strength over the years. What the future holds for the USA and the World in the coming months and Years is far from certain due to Trump and his Crony Administration. God help the USA and the World.
For more than 80 years the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has been the linchpin of security in Europe against aggregation from Russia and its Allies (red). The United States of America (USA) has been the leader and major contributor, with Troops and Air Force stationed in Europe. It has also provided the USA with bases from which they can operate outside the NATO structure for other operations in the world. NATO has expanded throughout the time from 1949 to 2024. Many countries were originally part of the Warsaw Pact (USSR Eastern Block). They are considered to be European who are also members of the European Union (EU). It is noticeable that Turkey (Turkiye) is not part of the EU so far. Therefore ‘Europe’ including the United Kingdom (UK) and Iceland is a complex group of Nations with there own autonomy. Another important part of NATO is the Article 5 which states that ‘An Attack on one is an Attack on all’.
NATO Membership DatesEuropean Union
Recent Negative USA Policy against Europe
It would appear that in the new USA National Security Strategy (NSS) and very recent derogatory remarks about Europe and its Leaders, by the USA Administration, that Europe and the NATO current structure are no longer a priority for the USA. Also the USA appears not to fully support Article 5 of the NATO treaty. This may lead to the USA leaving NATO and withdrawing its militarily from Europe and its Nuclear Umbrella. This would then become ‘Europe’s NATO’ (blue) (Canada not shown). On the first reflection everyone would consider that catastrophic and very worrying. This article seeks to consider that it may not be so catastrophic as you may think and it would be disadvantageous to the USA.
Europe NATO (blue) as at 2025
European NATO – Membership
It should be clearly understood that some European Countries joined NATO because of the USA’s participation and Nuclear Umbrella. Therefore the first criteria when we consider a European NATO, is the extent that the present NATO Countries would want to continue in a European NATO without the USA but still retaining the Article 5, ‘An Attack on one is an Attack on all’. If we assume that they will then the Military Power is estimated to be still significant. The United Kingdom and France still have Nuclear Weapons but in smaller numbers providing a reduced Nuclear Umbrella. However, the second biggest Military after the USA in NATO is Turkey (Turkiye) who is not part of the EU. If for any reason Turkey decided not to participate in a ‘European NATO’ this would create significant problems in terms of Manpower and Military Resources, Land, Air and Sea. Additionally, Turkey can if required control the exit and entry of Black Sea shipping into the Mediterranean Sea. It is also strategically important when considering the Russia and Ukraine conflict and other surrounding NATO countries such as Greece, Bulgaria and Romania.
Why is Ukraine Important to Russia and NATO
Below is the Map showing the NATO border with Russia and Ukraine which is under Attack From Russia (red). If Ukraine were to fall to Russia this would bring the Russian and Belarus Forces in direct contact with Poland and Romania borders. The Russian and Belarus Forces could combine to attack the Balkan Countries between Finland and Poland a really vulnerable NATO border Area. Therefore it is extremely important that Ukraine is not taken over by Russia as it will endanger NATO even more than at present. Another NATO border Area is Finland which has a very long , 1500 km border with Russia.
European NATO – Manpower
Considering active manpower levels for a European NATO, this equates to over 2.07 Million. The chart shows NATO countries above 30,000 and 240,000 for those other NATO countries below 30,000. These are the latest estimates in 2025 shown in 1000’s (K). However, these estimates do not include Reservists or Additional Manpower if required if war was imminent. It should be noted that if Turkey decided not to participate that would reduce significantly the total numbers of Manpower available. It should be noted that Poland has been expanding their military significantly recently. These numbers do not include any other world country such as Australia and New Zealand who may wish to participate in case of War.
European NATO – Land Resources
This element is difficult to estimate the numbers of Battle Tanks, Howitzers etc as production is always ongoing. In addition. the evolution of Drone Warfare is significant as we have seen in the Ukraine Russian war. However, at present the numbers of Battle Tanks, Howitzers etc far exceed the numbers that Russia has at present, due to the war in Ukraine. However, as the WWII has shown us, Russia can increase these quite quickly.
European NATO – Air Resources
This element is also difficult to estimate the numbers and types of Aircraft which includes large and small Drones that are playing a significant role in Arial warfare as we have seen in Ukraine. However NATO has almost double the number of Fighter Aircraft than Russia. However, as the WWII has shown us, Russia can increase these quite quickly.
European NATO – Naval Resources
This element is not so difficult to estimate but the numbers and types of Naval craft that the European NATO possess far outweighs the Russian Naval Power at present. However, both Naval Powers have Nuclear Submarines Powered and Missile Launchers. Europe NATO has three Aircraft Carriers and the Russians one that is out of commission at present.
European NATO – Defence Forces Deployment
From a Military point of View Europe NATO has two disadvantages, First the distance of the NATO border with Russia and Belarus and secondly is the North Sea, Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea all of which could see Attacks in the Rear of NATO from the Russian Navy. Also these waters are a Barrier of Retreating NATO Forces. Given that an Attack from Russia came from the Eastern Front of NATO, some Military Forces from UK, France Germany, Italy, Spain and others, would need to be deployed to the Eastern Front. This is happening today in smaller proportions as a precautionary defencive action.
Conclusion
Most importantly NO ONE WANTS WAR, that is why Countries and Organisations like NATO have Defence Military’s to deter War with others. The trouble is that we cannot prevent Countries such as Russia starting a War against another sovereign Country like Ukraine. However, Ukraine surprised and drove back Russia due to there well trained committed Armed Forces and the weapons from NATO countries and others. It is hard to think that Russia and its Allies would start a War with NATO even without USA, ie Europe’s NATO. I also believe if Russia did start a War with Europe’s NATO and the War was moving in the Russians direction that the USA would not allow that to happen not just for Europe but for the USA itself. My concern is that Russia keeps threatening Nuclear strikes, which would of course mean, the end of the world as we know it. I do think that Europe as a whole must prioritise more investment in their Defence budgets to increase the deterrent of another European War or WW III.
In my previous articles in October 2024, Trump Win: Goodbye USA and Polarised World Order, in June 2025 An Uncertain World and in November 2025 Europeans, Ukraine Dilemma , I considered what the world would look like if a new USA Administration lead by Donald Trump were to be elected. Today when I read the following; “Trump lays bare his contempt for Europe in a blistering new “USA National Security Strategy” (NSS) document, I’m afraid that in general my articles reflect how in the past One Year the World has Changed.
USA Administration Domination
In the past Year and recently in particular, the new USA Administration and its leader, have dominated the world activities and the world order in a huge way, that is destabilizing the world functions over the past 80 years. This includes the USA itself and many major Countries, throughout the world. It appears that the USA is using its Financial and Military Muscle to Coerce Countries throughout the world to follow their demands or face retribution. This includes its close allies in Europe and around the world as well as the USA’s adversaries. No matter what world media outlets you look at they all refer to the USA Administration domination and its effects, every minute of every day.
Interfering Europe not Welcomed by the USA
The USA Administration have adopted a policy based upon the new National Security Strategy (NSS) which is based upon the USA’ Presidents Monro, ‘Monro Doctrine’ in 1823. It was primarily aimed at European Colonialism, Interference and Influence in the Americas in particular those South of the USA Border. It also gave the USA the right to intervene in those South of the Border Countries to reinforce the USA preeminence in the Western Hemisphere. Perhaps this explains the military build up, threatening Venezuela, who has a Dictatorial President that the USA dislikes.
USA Administration Disdain for Europeans
Why is the USA Administration’s Disdain (the feeling that someone or something is unworthy of one’s consideration or respect) for Europe? This Disdain is coming from the very top of the USA Administration and its NSS in a manner that Europe is being overrun by Non-European, Non-Whites, caused by immigration and because of this Europe faces quote: “civilization erasure.” There are many other criticisms by the USA of Europe that demeans the Europeans. At the same time there is no criticism of Russia by the USA Administration, who are trying to destabilise Europe and Ukraine. The Europeans form a major part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) which is also experiencing some strained relations with its major contributor, the USA.
European NATO Block (Blue)
Ukraine War has Solidified Europe
The majority of the major European Countries have come together since the Ukraine War started but especially in the last few months due to the Attitude and Actions by the USA Administration. As the Europeans are a major contributor of support for Ukraine, the recent ‘Ukraine, Russia Peace Talks’ have highlighted differences between the USA Administration and European Countries. First of all the USA Administration and Russia created a 28 point so called Peace Plan without consulting Ukraine and Europe. However, the Europeans backing Ukraine demanded that they were involved in reviewing the Peace Plan as it appeared to give Russia everything they demanded. This did not go down well with the USA Administration or Russia, who accused the Europeans of Interference in the USA Peace process. However, this did bring some unity within the ‘European NATO Block’ who recognised the Ukraine positive outcome was important to Europe as a whole. My views of the Ukraine War and the USA Administrations approach is highlighted in my article: ‘Europeans, Ukraine Dilemma’ dated November 2025.
Is Europe becoming Non-European?
One of the new USA’s NSS points is their somewhat over zealous claim that in about 20 years some European Countries in NATO populations will become Non-European. This mainly relates to European Immigration most of which are Islamic. It is suggested that those Countries will not support the ideals of the USA and NATO. First of all the average Islamic actual population in Europe is only 6% the same as the United Kingdom, however the public thinks its much higher which is due to the Islamic communities ‘Imposing’ their way of life on the 94% of the Non-Muslim population. Refer to my recent article: Great Britain and Islamic Fears November 2025. Secondly there are 3 NATO Countries with mainly Islamic populations, North Macedonia 30/50%, Albania 50/70% and Turkiye 90/95% the 2nd biggest Military Power in NATO. Therefore, this USA Administration claim that the majority of NATO European Countries will become Non-European and therefore will not support USA and NATO ideals appears to be unfounded.
USA Peace Plan is also a USA Commercial Plan
Ukraines top General Oleksandr Syrskyi said a “Just Peace” can only be achieved if fighting is halted along current front lines and then for negotiations to take place”. He also indicated that Ukraine will not give Russia Territory and its People which are still under Ukraines control. All parties want Peace but it must be a ‘Just Peace’ starting with a Cease Fire at current front line positions. Russia has stated NO CEASE FIRE and WE WILL TAKE TERRITORY BY FORCE if not given by Ukraine. Therefore with the amended USA Peace Plan, there is no possibility of an Agreement at present unless Russia is willing to compromise on some points for ending the War. The USA Administration want Peace in Ukraine as a matter of urgency, like the Europeans and Ukraine. However the USA see big Commercial Advantages with Russia and the invitation to re join the G7 Nations as part of a Post War USA Commercial Plan. This USA Commercial Plan appears to be driving the overall Peace Plan, which may not be in Ukraines or Europe’s best interest.
USA Far East Alliances in Preference to Europeans
As part of the USA NSS it is focusing on the Far East Alliances, such as India, Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia, whilst communicating with China regarding the South China Sea, Taiwan and USA China trade relationships. At the same time as we have discussed, a waning USA interest in European Alliances and the commitment to NATO, where USA military forces may be withdrawn and redeployed toward the USA and maybe the Far East.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that President Trump and his USA Administration have changed the world order over the past one year and it is likely to continue for at least another three years. I think that this is a wake up call to the whole world and especially Europe that the USA changing its priorities to benefit the USA in a ‘USA First’ policy, in all of its future activities. How this will manifest itself in the coming months and years only time and circumstances will tell. Its time for Europe which the USA says its a non-entity to assert itself in the world as a World Power without the USA.
Over the last 12 months the Europeans have come to the conclusion that their relationship with the Untied States of America (USA) has changed significantly in many ways. It appears that the Europeans have realised that the support that the USA has given over the past 80 years, is decreasing due to USA internal policy changes. This is related to the relationship with Europe, including the approach to the Ukraine situation and other matters. Many European Leaders of the larger Countries, such as Germany, France Italy Spain part of the European Union and the United Kingdom are ensuring that their input to matters such as Ukraine are taken into consideration. By doing so this is causing a European dilemma of the future relationship with the USA.
The Ukraine Situation
The map above shows the Ukraine/Russia situation as at 29 November 2025. Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, however the other occupied areas is as a result of the war since 2021. In the early part of the war Ukraine in 2021 pushed Russia out of the invasion areas in the north. Russia has gained little ground in the 4 regions ( Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk), over the past 2 years owing to the strong defence by the Ukrainians. In addition to these front lines, Russia has and still is launching significant air assaults on civilian accommodation, Energy Facilities and Infrastructure. It was believed by Russia that they could take all of Ukraine very quickly in 2021. They were wrong so they decided they want all of the 4 regions and Crimea for the time being.
European and USA Support
The Ukrainians had significant support including weapons ammunition, air defence systems and intelligence at the start of the war in 2021 from the USA, UK, EU and others allowing the Ukrainians to defend themselves and push the Russian invaders in the north out of Ukraine and back into Russia. In the previous USA Administration the USA played a significant role in the support function. However the new USA Administration’s policy on Ukraine has impacted the support chain, requiring the European to bare more of the support function. Another major change by the USA is that they will sell weapons to Europe for them to distribute to Ukraine. The USA are also looking to have payment in time to come for the support provided by the previous administration (green) which at the time no payment was expected. The Europeans and the UK, on the other hand have and still are providing support Free Of Charge (FOC) to the Ukrainians.
Push For Peace
The recent additional movement for Russia to stop the war against Ukraine was by the USA and Russia’s 28 point plan being formulated without Ukraine or Europe being involved. This war involves Ukraine and Europe through its support. A meeting was called for by Europe and Ukraine as well as the USA in Geneva Switzerland. It was clear that the ’28 point Peace Plan’ originated from the demands of the Russians for all of their requirements to be met. However the Europeans and Ukraine insisted on some changes including the right of Ukraine to decide to apply for NATO membership in the longer term. It also had the right to have an army big enough to protect itself initially at a later date but with Security Guarantees from the USA and the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ headed by the UK and France. However, more importantly is the insistence by Russia for Ukraine to give up the territory and its people in the 4 Regions that Russia has not taken by force. The Ukrainians, Europeans, UK and the many members of the Coalition of the Willing do not agree that this should be done as these are fortified defence positions (Green).
The Forced Dilemma
As part of the dilemma the USA are trying to force this part and other parts of the so called ’28 point Peace Plan’ through and give Russia almost everything they want. This also includes removing all USA sanctions on Russia and allow the to join the G7 nations to G8. The real dilemma is if the Ukrainians, Europeans, UK and the many members of the Coalition of the Willing do not agree that this should be done and the Russians reject the Peace Plan and continues the war, what will the USA Administration do? It has been floated by the USA Administration that they would stop all weapons deliveries to Europe together with other support facilities like Intelligence information to Ukraine. They may also want repayment from Ukraine for the previous weapons and support much quicker. They would most certainly block any move for Ukraine to join NATO. It will also leave Europe including the UK and the Coalition of the Willing to continue support for Ukraine without the USA.
Is it Time for Europe to Lead
Europe including the UK have a collective decision to make, that is to accept that the USA is no longer a reliable partner, which has already been voiced by some European Countries Leaders. It is time for Europe to Lead and look out for themselves and Ukraine, in resisting Russia’s advancement and to support Ukraine to defend itself. In addition, Europe must defend its borders too. Many Leaders of the larger European Countries have recognised that fact already and are taking action to increase their defence requirements. This will of course include a reduced NATO maybe without the USA. However, even without the USA Europe must also continue to find a solution to stop the war in Ukraine as soon as possible to stop the huge loss of life on both sides. This will be difficult as Russia wants all of Ukraine not just the regions discussed and is not really interested in a Lasting Peace or Cease Fire. Militarily giving up the 4 Regions to Russia, will create a spring board to further attacks by Russia to gain full control of Ukraine.
Will Ukraine Be forced to Accept Regions Handover?
As I am composing this article as the Ukrainians are on the way to the USA for talks on the 28 Point Peace Plan with the USA Administration. This meeting appears to be the USA forcing Ukraine to accept all of terms including the Regions Handover to Russia. Whilst Ukraine wants peace they will have to decide the outcome of this meeting. Whilst they have the backing of all Europe, UK and other parties not to accept the Regions Handover, the Ukrainians are in a very difficult position. Although there is a promise of Security Guarantees, we have seen the USA ignore them like the Nonnuclear and the 2014 Russia take over of Crimea. Therefore even with the aid of the Europeans, if Russia attacks again, Ukraine will be on their own and Europe, UK and NATO Countries, especially Poland and the Balkens will be under threat by Russia. So there are two outcomes; Ukraine Signs Agreement under Duress and Russia Wins or Ukraine does Not Sign Agreement under Duress and War Goes on with possible Loss of USA Support.
Conclusion
This situation is a Dilemma for Ukraine, Europe, UK, Coalition of the Willing and NATO due to the USA who appears to favour Russia over their long time Allies to stop the War. All of the above except for Russia want to end this War but the current approach by the USA is Appeasement just like 1939 all over again. As we have seen that in the days to come there will be the likelihood of the 2 Options outlined above, both which are difficult ways forward. However, I feel that not signing the USA Russia Agreement sends a message to both, that Ukraine, Europe, UK, Coalition of the Willing and NATO will defend their Sovereignty and Borders whatever the cost against Russian Aggregation. God Help the Ukrainian People!
This article read is long and complex as is the Uncertain World we live in.
I was born in February 1941 in Gateshead, England during World War Two (WWII) which was in its second year. At that time it was an ‘Uncertain World’ as we did not know the outcome of WWII. During this time a major part of Europe was under Nazi control and expanding. Great Britain was under constant bombing by the Nazi’s especially London called the Blitz. It was the Royal Air Force that blunted the daylight attacks, which forced most of the bombing to be done at night. However, it was uncertain whether Great Britain would be invaded by the Nazi’s. This uncertainty was in some respect predictable due to a war time period which was different to today’s ‘Uncertain World’.
Today’s Local Wars and Potential Conflicts
Today we have at least two local wars causing much uncertainty in the world. The major war between Ukraine and Russia started by Russia to try to gain full control Ukraine. The Israel and the Palestinians conflict in Gaza. In terms of international potential conflicts, the main Countries involved are Iran, Taiwan, North Korea. The main uncertainty is not the conflicts themselves but the ‘Political Reactions’ to these by the major world powers.
Political Reactions of the Local Wars
Most of the Uncertainty in the World is caused by the ‘Political Reactions’ of the USA, Europe, Russia and China, which are actively involved with current and potential conflicts. Let us look at the Political Reactions for the following:
Ukraine and Russia
The history of Ukraine/Russia relationship is a very complex one. However, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation from Russia. As part of that agreement Ukraine gave up its Nuclear Weapons. Ukraine was leaning towards becoming a European Union Member. There was much pro Russian unrest in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions which Russia took full advantage of 2014. They organized pro Russian Independence referendums. However, the Ukraine government Army and Pro Russian Fighters started the conflict. At the same time Russia Annexed Crimea. The USA and its Allies ‘Political Reactions’ were to apply Sanctions on Russia and to provide significant aid to Ukraine, including financial assistance, humanitarian supplies, and military equipment. There was no offer from the USA to be involved militarily against Russia. To date the USA and Allies have not recognised the Crimea annexation.
On 21 February 2019, the Constitution of Ukraine was amended, to allow Ukraine a Sovereign Country to apply for membership in the European Union and NATO. On 21 April 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected president of Ukraine. In July 2020 Ukraine, and NATO members Poland and Lithuania signed a cooperation pact. On 2 February 2021, a Presidential Decree banned the Television broadcasting of the pro-Russian TV channels in Ukraine. The ‘Political Reactions’ were accepted by the USA and its Allies as Ukraine as a Sovereign Country could make its own decisions in accordance with their Constitution. However, Russia’s ‘Political Reactions’ was fury and it decided it could not accept Ukraine being part of the EU or NATO as they viewed Ukraine as being part of Russia like the Soviet Union days.
On Feb 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine in the East into Zaporizhia and Kherson and North East into Kyiv and Kharkiv from Belarus a Russian Ally. The initial attack in all areas was heroically repelled by Ukrainian Forces. Once again the USA under the President Biden administration and its Allies ‘Political Reactions’ decided not to get involved militarily against Russia but to provide a huge amount of Military Equipment and Ammunition to support the Ukrainian Forces to defend themselves against Russian aggression.
Situation in early 2022 after Russia invaded UkraineSituation in May 2025 showing blue areas where Ukraine Forces Counterattacked Russian Forces (red).
However , since President Trump and his administration took over in January 2025, there is a great deal of Uncertainty of the USA’s ‘Political Reactions’ in respect of the support for Ukraine. The Allies including the UK, Europe, Canada, Japan and others ‘Political Reactions’ is to continue and even increase the support for Ukraine including military equipment and ammunition. However, the USA, ‘Political Reactions’ to date has been driven by President Trump saying he wants Peace but at the same time he has stopped supporting with Military Aid and citicising Ukraine and has appeared to support the Russian, Putin’s, narrative. The Russians want to take over 20% of eastern Ukraine including Crimea, recognised as part of Russia, no Ukraine Military or NATO or EU membership , all accepted by the USA and the rest of the world to achieve Peace. Ukraine, UK, Europe and Allies do not accept this way forward. The initial USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ was to agree with Russia that Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO. The question now is, will the USA’s, ‘Political Reactions’ be, to withdraw support for Military and Financial Aid and as President Trump said recently “They hate each other, and they’re fighting in a park, and you try and pull them apart. They don’t want to be pulled. Sometimes you’re better off letting them fight for a while and then pulling them apart.” UK, Europe and Allies were disgusted at this ‘Political Reaction’ but have yet have to wait for more ‘Political Reactions’ from the USA and President Trump, which may determine, if Ukraine survives as Sovereign Country or eventually becomes part of Russia.
Israel and Palestinians
The Israel and Palestinians conflict is a even more Complex situation that the Ukrainian one. However they have one thing in common, History!!! This article refers to the situation between Israel and the Palestinians after the incursion of the Palestinian Hamas Group from the Gaza Strip crossed into Israel killing 1200 people and taking 250 hostages on October 7th 2023.
The ‘Political Reaction’ by 44 Countries including the USA and its Allies was swift in condemning this incursion in the strongest possible terms. The Israel Armed Forces retaliated by first of all carrying out Bombing Gaza and then sending Ground Troops into Gaza to go after Hamas and recover the Hostages. This was supported by the USA and Allies as a reasonable response to the Attack of October the 7th. It was thought that this would be a limited operation based upon a ‘Political Reaction’ of Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, but this turned into nightmare situation no one had really expected.
Benjamin Netanyahu
During the USA’s President Biden administration the USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ was to allow the Israeli action to continue with negotiations between Hamas and Israel regarding the return of the Hostages and Palestinian Prisoner swap. However, this was very slow and did not achieve the release of many Hostages. Over the past 2 years of the Hamas, Israeli War, the destruction of the Gaza Strip has been extensive with over 50,000 Palestinian Civilians including Children being killed and many more injured by Israel. Some living and deceased Hostages have been released but not all.
The President Trump administration ‘Political Reaction’ so far has continued the support for Israeli action but President Trump has made some very contentious suggestions, such as; ‘Moving all of the Palestinians out of Gaza and making the Gaza Strip the ‘Riviera of Gaza’. There has been continued effort for a Cease Fire and the release of all the Hostages living and deceased but without much success. The other major current situation is that Israel will not allow Humanitarian Aid including Food, Water and Medical Supplies into Gaza. It appears that the USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ is uncertain and is waiting for more details from President Trump and his administration.
Political Reactions of the Potential Conflicts
There are three areas of the world that have the Potential for Conflict, Taiwan and the South China Sea, North Korea and Iran and the ‘Political Reactions’ of those Countries involved.
Taiwan and the South China Sea
The ‘Political Reactions’ of China towards Taiwan and the South China Sea are paramount in this Potential Conflict. From the map below it will be seen that China claims that almost all of the South China Sea and Taiwan belongs to them (red line). This claim has been dismissed by the Worlds Courts, ruling that other Countries have jurisdiction over their own parts of the South China Sea, however China does not accept this ruling.
Taiwan was taken over from the Japanese after the WWII ended in 1945 by the Nationalist Republic of China (ROC) with the ROC Government moving out of China in 1949 due to the Communist (Mao Zedong) take over of China. It has never been ruled by the Communist China Government. However the ‘Political Reaction’ of the Communist China Government and its President Xi Jinping is adamant that Taiwan belongs to Communist China. Taiwan has it own Government and Armed Forces and is Autonomous operating under an agreed ‘One China Policy’ that allows Taiwan to operate separately but not as an Independent Country. However more recently President Xi Jinping’s ‘Political Reaction’ is increasingly aggressive surrounding Taiwan and involving frequent Military Drills and Exercises, including Simulated Attacks on the island, and intimidating Taiwan and its population against Independence moves.
The Chinese Navy Ships
During previous USA administrations the ‘Political Reaction’ was to provide Taiwan with Weapons and Aircraft for their defence and if necessary the USA and its Far East Allies would come to the aid of Taiwan if China attempted to invade. However, President Trump and his administrations ‘Political Reaction’ is uncertain in regard to coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of an attack by China. However, the provision of Military resources from the USA for Taiwan’s defence still seems to be ongoing.
In addition to the Taiwan Potential Conflict the associated South China Sea issues could also be a source of ‘Potential Conflict’ between China and the other Countries that have claims on their parts of the South China Sea. Another important issue is the right of Free Navigation and Passage by all other Nations in the world through the South China Sea. This of course applies to the USA and its Allies such as Japan and South Korea. At present the ‘Political Reaction’ to this situation by the USA and its Allies, is that all Commercial Shipping is not impeded and that, USA and its Allies Military Ships regularly undertake Freedom of Navigation through the Taiwan Straits and the whole of the South China Sea. China’s ‘Political Reaction’ is against the Freedom of Navigation movements through the South China Sea, and especially through the Taiwan Straits. It is again uncertain whether the USA’s President Trump’s administration will continue this ‘Political Reaction’.
Just recently the Chinese Navy has been undertaking Military Exercises close to the Australian and New Zealand recognised Sea Boundaries, without any notification to Australia and New Zealand. This has caused great concern especially regarding Commercial Air Travel and Shipping. Both these countries ‘Political Reaction’ has called for an explanation from China. Additionally, China is now operating its 2 Aircraft Carriers and supporting ships in the Pacific and South China Sea near Japan. A 3rd Chinese Aircraft Carrier the ‘Fujian’ is on Sea Trials increasing the Sea Power of China in the Far East. Japan is increasingly worried that the present USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ is not to confront China Militarily but cooperate with China Commercially.
The Chinese Aircraft Carrier ‘Fujian’
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)
As a result of the Korean War in the 1950’s North Korea has been aligned with Communist China and Russia. Over the years North Korea has acquired Nuclear and Chemical weapons. In the last Trump Presidency 2018 he tried to pursued the young Kim Jong Un Leader of North Korea to dispense with his Nuclear Arsenal without success. President Trump has the idea that he is friends with Kim Jong Un. However, in 2025 the increasing good relationship between Kim Jong Un and President Putin has resulted in North Korea providing Military Men and Arms to Russia to fight against Ukraine. The USA Allies ‘Political Reaction’ to this, has been verbal condemning North Korea. However, there has been a great deal of uncertainty what the USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ has been due to so called friendship between President Trump and Kim Jong Un. Kim Jong Un’s ‘Political Reaction’ has to build up his Nuclear Weapons, Navy and Land Forces, which is creating the Potential for Conflict.
Islamic Republic of Iran
Iran also known as Persia is recognised as being the ‘Cradle of Civilisation’ being one of the oldest inhabited places on Earth. Iran is the most influential Countries in the Middle East supporting Proxies including Hamas, which opposes Israel. Recently there were Missile and Aircraft Attacks between Israel and Iran, however their was an agreement to stop further attacks on each other. To date they are not thought to possess a Nuclear Weapon but does have the means to do so. The USA and Allies ‘Political Reaction’ is to prevent Iran having a Nuclear Weapon. New talks are ongoing with Iran and the USA however, the outcome could develop into a major Conflict between Iran and the USA its Allies and Israel.
Uncertainty and the Political Reactions
We have seen that the Countries and their relationship with each other is creating a very Unstable Condition throughout the World. Since the re-election of President Trump that Uncertainty has appeared to increase due to his administrations ‘Political Reactions’. In addition the increased ‘Political Reaction’ by China and Russia in particular are also causing Uncertainty. With these major World Powers being almost directly opposed to each other the Possibility of Conflict between them is increased. We can only hope and pray that never happens.
Thank you for taking the time to read this complex and long article
Today we see China expanding in all areas technological, cultural and militarily, Making China Great Again (MCGA), which is seen by many around the world especially the USA and Europe as somewhat threatening in terms of social, financial and its increasing military power. Since Trump took over the USA Presidency he is using financial activities such as Tariffs against hundreds of countries, especially China. In the main he sees China as those who are to blame for the in-balance of China manufactured goods swamping goods made elsewhere in the world especially the USA. I hate to say this’ but he is not wrong, however, let us see how this happened over many years and who really is to blame.
Start of the Modern China Transition
My own view on the ‘Modern China Transition’ was as a result of the Korean war from 1950 to 1953 between North Korea and South Korea. At that time International Forces, in particular the USA and the UK on behalf of the United Nations (UN) was supporting South Korea in a significant way against the North Koreans who invaded South Korea across the 38th parallel, separating the two Korea’s. The North Koreans were backed by the Soviet Union and later China. (08 1950).
However, the original aim of the War from the UN’s mandate was was to push back the North Koreans over the 38th parallel which they did. However, they continued to advanced North towards the Yalu River which was near the Border of China, decided by the USA Commanding General MacArthur (11 1950) which was unauthorised by the USA President and the UN. Of course China’s Leader Mao Zedong could not accept this and provided a significant amount of Chinese troops technologically inferior to the USA to push back the Americans to the 38th Parallel. From the experience of the Korean War the Chinese recognised it needed to increase its technological expertise in all areas, for its future existence in the world especially as a defence from the USA military might.
China Changes to Market Economy & Reforms
After Mao Zedong’s death the new leader Deng Xiaoping known as the architect of today’s modern China introduced a Socialist Market Economy and Opening Up and Reform of China. This included China’s infrastructure and political reforms. This had a major impact on the way China interacted with the rest of the world especially regarding Trade Transactions. It also opened the door for Investments and the introduction of new Technologies, increasing China’s Manufacturing Capabilities. A new leader Jiang Zemin took over in 1989 who continued Deng Xiaoping’s policies and created new Special Economic Zones which allowed China to expand its Manufacturing Capability significantly. These combined with a huge Labour Force on comparatively very Low Wages and Long Working Hours, meant very Low Costs and Fast Deliveries for World Customers.
Deng Xiaoping & Jiang Zemin
A Magnet for Major World Manufacturing Companies
Most of China’s expansion was in the Western Regions of China, which attracted significant Foreign Investment mainly from the USA around US$1,800 million in 1999 to US$1,900 million in 2001. This also opened the door for many world Manufacturing Companies especially from the USA to take advantage of Special Tax Breaks and Low Cost Manufacturing. This resulted in Manufacturing being moved from the USA and other World Countries to China. Of course this also benefited the Populations of the USA, Europe and the World having Low Cost Goods and Increased Profits for the Manufacturing Companies.
A typical Western China City and Manufacturing Hub
Trade In-balance Problem
As a result of so many Goods being manufactured in China, such as Apple ‘I Phones’, China’s Exports to the World including the USA is far Greater than it’s Imports from the world especially the USA. This creates an In-balance problem and also a reduction of Manufacturing Levels in the other Countries especially the USA.
The USA Tariffs and Blames China
The USA and the Trump Administration wants to reverse Many Years of having Cheap Goods from China and bring back Manufacturing to the USA and are blaming China for the Trade In-balance. Their solution is very high Tariffs on Chinese Goods imported to the USA. The USA has no one but themselves to blame for the Trade In-balance that they themselves created the conditions in China over the previous years.
Who helped to ‘Make China Great Again’
The USA and many other World Investments and Manufacturing Companies due to their desire for Cheap Manufacturing and High Profit Margins have assisted China and its own Expansion Plans to be come the Second Largest Economy and a formidable Military Country. What ever the USA may do in the future they will not be able to match the Manufacturing Low Cost and Speedy Delivery that China is currently providing to the world today.
Footnote:
I wonder if Trump knows full well he cannot restore the level of Manufacturing to the USA or Reduce the USA / China In-balance. He is making the USA Population pay for the Tariffs (which is an Import Tax) that he is applying, by increased Retail Prices charged by the Importers , which raises the Governments Income. This will of course raise USA Inflation and is reducing the value of the USA Dollar and the confidence in the USA throughout the world.
I am a British Senior Citizen. The following is my own personal opinion:
Trump is like a Pied Piper (a person who persuades a lot of other people to follow them or do something with them). The USA public who follow him is known as his base. The majority of these people are also members of the USA Republican Party. Even in the USA House of Representatives and the Senate many Republicans support him. Also on the USA main media outlets some pundits are very vocal in their support for Trump. Myself and millions of others ask WHY?
Convicted Criminal, Indicted and Habitual Falsifier
Trump is a Convicted Criminal, he has been Indicted of several crimes related to the last USA Presidential 2020 Election and has been found guilty for matters related to abuse of women. All of which he totally denies and calls them a “Witch Hunt”. He has no shame in telling false and misinformation statements about an array of subjects, in fact its part of his strategy to gain attention and sow confusion and mayhem.
Trump Image: Claudio Olivieri
Demeanour
The way in which Trump presents himself as a strong man punching his fist to the sky and strutting around as though he owns the world and everyone should bow to him is always evident. He expresses himself in a manner that in most cases is insulating and at times hurtful to less fortunate people, at the same time enjoying the positive responses of those listening to him. That makes his audience complicate in what he is saying . However, his base, Trump politicians and the pundits always try to say its nothing “its just the way Trump talks and behaves”. This is their way of justifying Trumps low class, unacceptable behaviour and speech.
USA a Divided Nation
Over the past 10 years the USA has become an increasingly divided nation, those supporting the Republican Party and those supporting the Democratic Party. Since the introduction of Trump into politics in 2014 this division has been increasing. Also the composition of the Republican Party has changed significantly with the more moderate party members being forced out and replaced by the Trump supporting members elected by the Republican Party electorate. This has increased the division of the USA into a Cult type following of Trump who now controls the Republican Party.
Republican (Red) and Democrat (Blue)Party SymbolsPolitical Map after 2020 Election -Red Republican and Blue Democrat
Threat to USA Democracy
Ever since the conclusion of the 2020 Presidential Election which Biden won, there has been a significant movement within the Republican Party and associates to portray the Election as ‘Stolen’. They also Invaded the USA Capitol on January 6th 2021 (known as an Insurrection) motivated by Trump, to try to stop the Presidential Election Certification. This resulted in deaths and injuries to the Police and others. However, Trumps Vice President Pence continued to Certify the Election in Congress, confirming Biden would be the next President.
Trump still did not accept the result and said would not Transfer the Presidential Power in a peaceful manner. Eventually, he had to relinquish Power but much later he was Indicted for Inciting the Insurrection on the Capitol Building and an attempted Coup.
January 6th 2021 Riot at the Capitol Buildings housing all of the Lawmakers
The House of Representatives and Senate 2024 Elections
Before we consider the Presidential Election we must consider the Consequences of the House of Representatives called the ‘Congress’ with Congressmen and the ‘Senate’ with Senators. The 2024 Elections will have a major effect on the next 4 years of Government, who ever is elected President. At present the Congress is controlled by the Republicans (R) by a few seats and the Senate by the Democrats (D) by one seat. This makes it more difficult to pass laws but there is a system of ‘Checks and Balances’.
There will be several outcomes after the 2024 Elections: (1) Congress R and Senate D, (2) Congress D and Senate R, (3) Congress D and Senate D, (4) Congress R and Senate R. The latter (4) poses the most danger to the USA Democracy as I will explain later.
Likely Consequences of Trump Loss in 2024
What if Trump Looses the 2024 Presidential Election? The consequences for the USA could be very serious especially loosing to a Women, Kamala Harris the present Vice President of the USA. I can only speculate based upon the reaction to Trumps last failure to win the USA Presidency. The reaction may depend upon the margin of victory for Harris in terms of the Electoral College Votes (ECV’s). To win the Presidential you must have 270 of the 538 ECV’s.
If Harris exceeds 270 by a good margin it will be difficult for Trump to say the Election was Stolen, Unfair or not Valid. However, he could still contest the Election in Courts as he did last time even when Biden had 306 to Trumps 232 ECV’s . If, however, Harris just wins 270 with a small margin the Trump will definitely contest the Election in all sorts of ways, which could lead to violence by his supporters, similar if not the same as January 6th 2021.
USA States showing the amount of ECV’s each State has for the Presidential Election.
Having said that, the Security around the Capitol Building and Lawmakers for Certification in 2024 will be substantial to prevent any entry into the Capitol Building or danger to Lawmakers. It is also possible that the Leader of the House of Representatives , being a Trump supporter, may also intervene before or during the Certification process.
Likely Consequences if Trump Wins in 2024
If trump gets 270 ECV’s or more he wins the Presidential Election and will become the President of the USA for a second term of 4 years in accordance with the USA Constitution. What happens next depends upon the outcome of the Congress and Senate Elections. If the Congress and Senate are controlled by the Republicans (4) then the USA is in great peril from Trump.
First, the Constitution could be changed to allow a President a third or forth consecutive terms or even worse that a president could serve for life just like the USA Supreme Court Members which is akin to being a Dictator. As Trump said “I will be a Dictator on Day One”.
Second, Women’s freedom to make their own decisions about their healthcare and abortion will be at huge risk as it is possible Trump will make abortion a Federal issue although he said he would not (can you Trust his words).
Third, Trump will threaten the existence of NATO or undermine its mandate by aligning himself with Dictators in charge of Russia, China, North Korea and others. This will cause immense friction with European and other Allies especially Canada and Australia. It will also affect the support for Ukraine as he brags he can get a finish to the war ‘in days’ by allowing the Russians to win by keeping Ukrainian Land and forbidding Ukraine from joining NATO. He may also give China the green light to invade Taiwan by backing off the defence agreement with the Island.
The USA Immigration Issue could be another that Trump could cause extreme disruption, threatening to deport millions of Immigrants not all illegal ones from the USA. Trump forgets that the USA has created its reputation for accepting Immigrants who have contributed substantially to the USA’s success over many years. He will continue to build his Mexican Border Wall which will also affect relations with Mexico.
Financially, Trump prefers to put Tariffs on imports which may threaten USA manufacturing or agriculture which will have a major negative impact on the USA economy. Trump blames the present inflation situation on the Democrats forgetting the rest of the world has inflationary problems not just the USA. Trump will also put the US Dollar at risk related to the BRICS Countries ambitions of eliminating the US Dollar in their trading pacts including Oil and Gas which has already started. The BRICS countries will no doubt put their own Tariffs on imported USA goods, which will have a negative impact on the USA economy.
Goodbye USA
If Trump Wins the 2024 Presidential Election, I believe, generally the USA will become a inward looking isolationist country divorced from the rest of the world, allowing China and others to become world leaders and to have increased influence in other countries such as Africa, South America, India and the Middle East. The European and other Alliances will be marginalised both in the Defence agreements and Trade agreements. The threat to the ‘USA Way of Life and Democracy’ will be real with the possibility of Trump becoming Dictatorial supported by the Congress and Senate controlled by Republicans. If Trump wins, supported by the Republican Congress and Senate the rest of the world can say Goodbye to the USA as we know today.
Footnote
If Trump gets elected President, that is a matter for the USA population. However it will also indicate that a substantial amount of people support the Rhetoric, the total lack of belief in the Rule of Law and the Low Class behaviour of a man like Trump, which is so sad for the USA’s Democracy and Decency. Lets hope that Trump never again sees the inside of the USA’s Presidential Oval Office for the sake of the USA people and the world.
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