I have just seen and article that says “NATO faces a major crisis over Greenland and Europe seems powerless to stop it“. Now the USA President is saying that “the USA will OWN Greenland the Easy Way or the Hard Way”. He is also saying if the USA don’t have Greenland then Russia or China will take it. What utter nonsense! Greenland is part of NATO.
Lets consider an option if the USA President is determined to use Force. What would happen if Germany, France, Great Britain and Canada had the courage to put a Defence Force into Greenland together with the Denmark Force as a a sign of solidarity and a deterrent?
Would the USA Congress act to prevent USA President from using Force against these Major Allies and would USA President himself have second thoughts about Attacking Greenland and the defending Major Allies.
Its Time for Europe to Stand Up and be Counted
Unless the Forces just mentioned stand up to the USA President and he calculates that no one will defend Greenland against the USA we can say goodbye to NATO which includes the USA. Then the USA itself then becomes an adversary. That being the case Europe must then “Stand Up and Be Counted” demanding that all USA Forces and Bases be withdrawn and closed with immediate effect. That means Europe has got to defend itself so be it, we are not military weaklings.
The USA is running Roughshod over Everybody
The USA as I have said previously has changed beyond all recognition in just over One Year. The USA is using ‘Bully Tactics’ against everyone internally and externally including so called Allies. From Europe’s point of view this cannot continue otherwise our European Countries will become Vassal States of the USA. As an Englishman and European we must honour our fallen military of the last two world wars and not let this happen.
I Never Imagined a USA as an Enemy
As an ex Serviceman I never imagined in my lifetime that the USA would become an Enemy of Europe and its Countries after fighting together against Enemies in two World Wars. I’m sure that overall the USA people do not want this either but they voted for the USA President, however they did not expect the chaos that is unfolding in the USA itself and what is unfolding with European Countries, not forgetting Ukraine.
If the USA takes Greenland By Force
If the USA takes Greenland By Force with or without a Defence Force, we can say goodbye to the World Order and International Law, which is already being disintegrated by the USA, and any meaningful relations between Europe and Great Britain and the USA. This is not what the people of Europe and Great Britain and the USA want but this is what the Hubris USA President is Dictating. God help us.
For more than 80 years the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has been the linchpin of security in Europe against aggregation from Russia and its Allies (red). The United States of America (USA) has been the leader and major contributor, with Troops and Air Force stationed in Europe. It has also provided the USA with bases from which they can operate outside the NATO structure for other operations in the world. NATO has expanded throughout the time from 1949 to 2024. Many countries were originally part of the Warsaw Pact (USSR Eastern Block). They are considered to be European who are also members of the European Union (EU). It is noticeable that Turkey (Turkiye) is not part of the EU so far. Therefore ‘Europe’ including the United Kingdom (UK) and Iceland is a complex group of Nations with there own autonomy. Another important part of NATO is the Article 5 which states that ‘An Attack on one is an Attack on all’.
NATO Membership DatesEuropean Union
Recent Negative USA Policy against Europe
It would appear that in the new USA National Security Strategy (NSS) and very recent derogatory remarks about Europe and its Leaders, by the USA Administration, that Europe and the NATO current structure are no longer a priority for the USA. Also the USA appears not to fully support Article 5 of the NATO treaty. This may lead to the USA leaving NATO and withdrawing its militarily from Europe and its Nuclear Umbrella. This would then become ‘Europe’s NATO’ (blue) (Canada not shown). On the first reflection everyone would consider that catastrophic and very worrying. This article seeks to consider that it may not be so catastrophic as you may think and it would be disadvantageous to the USA.
Europe NATO (blue) as at 2025
European NATO – Membership
It should be clearly understood that some European Countries joined NATO because of the USA’s participation and Nuclear Umbrella. Therefore the first criteria when we consider a European NATO, is the extent that the present NATO Countries would want to continue in a European NATO without the USA but still retaining the Article 5, ‘An Attack on one is an Attack on all’. If we assume that they will then the Military Power is estimated to be still significant. The United Kingdom and France still have Nuclear Weapons but in smaller numbers providing a reduced Nuclear Umbrella. However, the second biggest Military after the USA in NATO is Turkey (Turkiye) who is not part of the EU. If for any reason Turkey decided not to participate in a ‘European NATO’ this would create significant problems in terms of Manpower and Military Resources, Land, Air and Sea. Additionally, Turkey can if required control the exit and entry of Black Sea shipping into the Mediterranean Sea. It is also strategically important when considering the Russia and Ukraine conflict and other surrounding NATO countries such as Greece, Bulgaria and Romania.
Why is Ukraine Important to Russia and NATO
Below is the Map showing the NATO border with Russia and Ukraine which is under Attack From Russia (red). If Ukraine were to fall to Russia this would bring the Russian and Belarus Forces in direct contact with Poland and Romania borders. The Russian and Belarus Forces could combine to attack the Balkan Countries between Finland and Poland a really vulnerable NATO border Area. Therefore it is extremely important that Ukraine is not taken over by Russia as it will endanger NATO even more than at present. Another NATO border Area is Finland which has a very long , 1500 km border with Russia.
European NATO – Manpower
Considering active manpower levels for a European NATO, this equates to over 2.07 Million. The chart shows NATO countries above 30,000 and 240,000 for those other NATO countries below 30,000. These are the latest estimates in 2025 shown in 1000’s (K). However, these estimates do not include Reservists or Additional Manpower if required if war was imminent. It should be noted that if Turkey decided not to participate that would reduce significantly the total numbers of Manpower available. It should be noted that Poland has been expanding their military significantly recently. These numbers do not include any other world country such as Australia and New Zealand who may wish to participate in case of War.
European NATO – Land Resources
This element is difficult to estimate the numbers of Battle Tanks, Howitzers etc as production is always ongoing. In addition. the evolution of Drone Warfare is significant as we have seen in the Ukraine Russian war. However, at present the numbers of Battle Tanks, Howitzers etc far exceed the numbers that Russia has at present, due to the war in Ukraine. However, as the WWII has shown us, Russia can increase these quite quickly.
European NATO – Air Resources
This element is also difficult to estimate the numbers and types of Aircraft which includes large and small Drones that are playing a significant role in Arial warfare as we have seen in Ukraine. However NATO has almost double the number of Fighter Aircraft than Russia. However, as the WWII has shown us, Russia can increase these quite quickly.
European NATO – Naval Resources
This element is not so difficult to estimate but the numbers and types of Naval craft that the European NATO possess far outweighs the Russian Naval Power at present. However, both Naval Powers have Nuclear Submarines Powered and Missile Launchers. Europe NATO has three Aircraft Carriers and the Russians one that is out of commission at present.
European NATO – Defence Forces Deployment
From a Military point of View Europe NATO has two disadvantages, First the distance of the NATO border with Russia and Belarus and secondly is the North Sea, Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea all of which could see Attacks in the Rear of NATO from the Russian Navy. Also these waters are a Barrier of Retreating NATO Forces. Given that an Attack from Russia came from the Eastern Front of NATO, some Military Forces from UK, France Germany, Italy, Spain and others, would need to be deployed to the Eastern Front. This is happening today in smaller proportions as a precautionary defencive action.
Conclusion
Most importantly NO ONE WANTS WAR, that is why Countries and Organisations like NATO have Defence Military’s to deter War with others. The trouble is that we cannot prevent Countries such as Russia starting a War against another sovereign Country like Ukraine. However, Ukraine surprised and drove back Russia due to there well trained committed Armed Forces and the weapons from NATO countries and others. It is hard to think that Russia and its Allies would start a War with NATO even without USA, ie Europe’s NATO. I also believe if Russia did start a War with Europe’s NATO and the War was moving in the Russians direction that the USA would not allow that to happen not just for Europe but for the USA itself. My concern is that Russia keeps threatening Nuclear strikes, which would of course mean, the end of the world as we know it. I do think that Europe as a whole must prioritise more investment in their Defence budgets to increase the deterrent of another European War or WW III.
In my previous articles in October 2024, Trump Win: Goodbye USA and Polarised World Order, in June 2025 An Uncertain World and in November 2025 Europeans, Ukraine Dilemma , I considered what the world would look like if a new USA Administration lead by Donald Trump were to be elected. Today when I read the following; “Trump lays bare his contempt for Europe in a blistering new “USA National Security Strategy” (NSS) document, I’m afraid that in general my articles reflect how in the past One Year the World has Changed.
USA Administration Domination
In the past Year and recently in particular, the new USA Administration and its leader, have dominated the world activities and the world order in a huge way, that is destabilizing the world functions over the past 80 years. This includes the USA itself and many major Countries, throughout the world. It appears that the USA is using its Financial and Military Muscle to Coerce Countries throughout the world to follow their demands or face retribution. This includes its close allies in Europe and around the world as well as the USA’s adversaries. No matter what world media outlets you look at they all refer to the USA Administration domination and its effects, every minute of every day.
Interfering Europe not Welcomed by the USA
The USA Administration have adopted a policy based upon the new National Security Strategy (NSS) which is based upon the USA’ Presidents Monro, ‘Monro Doctrine’ in 1823. It was primarily aimed at European Colonialism, Interference and Influence in the Americas in particular those South of the USA Border. It also gave the USA the right to intervene in those South of the Border Countries to reinforce the USA preeminence in the Western Hemisphere. Perhaps this explains the military build up, threatening Venezuela, who has a Dictatorial President that the USA dislikes.
USA Administration Disdain for Europeans
Why is the USA Administration’s Disdain (the feeling that someone or something is unworthy of one’s consideration or respect) for Europe? This Disdain is coming from the very top of the USA Administration and its NSS in a manner that Europe is being overrun by Non-European, Non-Whites, caused by immigration and because of this Europe faces quote: “civilization erasure.” There are many other criticisms by the USA of Europe that demeans the Europeans. At the same time there is no criticism of Russia by the USA Administration, who are trying to destabilise Europe and Ukraine. The Europeans form a major part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) which is also experiencing some strained relations with its major contributor, the USA.
European NATO Block (Blue)
Ukraine War has Solidified Europe
The majority of the major European Countries have come together since the Ukraine War started but especially in the last few months due to the Attitude and Actions by the USA Administration. As the Europeans are a major contributor of support for Ukraine, the recent ‘Ukraine, Russia Peace Talks’ have highlighted differences between the USA Administration and European Countries. First of all the USA Administration and Russia created a 28 point so called Peace Plan without consulting Ukraine and Europe. However, the Europeans backing Ukraine demanded that they were involved in reviewing the Peace Plan as it appeared to give Russia everything they demanded. This did not go down well with the USA Administration or Russia, who accused the Europeans of Interference in the USA Peace process. However, this did bring some unity within the ‘European NATO Block’ who recognised the Ukraine positive outcome was important to Europe as a whole. My views of the Ukraine War and the USA Administrations approach is highlighted in my article: ‘Europeans, Ukraine Dilemma’ dated November 2025.
Is Europe becoming Non-European?
One of the new USA’s NSS points is their somewhat over zealous claim that in about 20 years some European Countries in NATO populations will become Non-European. This mainly relates to European Immigration most of which are Islamic. It is suggested that those Countries will not support the ideals of the USA and NATO. First of all the average Islamic actual population in Europe is only 6% the same as the United Kingdom, however the public thinks its much higher which is due to the Islamic communities ‘Imposing’ their way of life on the 94% of the Non-Muslim population. Refer to my recent article: Great Britain and Islamic Fears November 2025. Secondly there are 3 NATO Countries with mainly Islamic populations, North Macedonia 30/50%, Albania 50/70% and Turkiye 90/95% the 2nd biggest Military Power in NATO. Therefore, this USA Administration claim that the majority of NATO European Countries will become Non-European and therefore will not support USA and NATO ideals appears to be unfounded.
USA Peace Plan is also a USA Commercial Plan
Ukraines top General Oleksandr Syrskyi said a “Just Peace” can only be achieved if fighting is halted along current front lines and then for negotiations to take place”. He also indicated that Ukraine will not give Russia Territory and its People which are still under Ukraines control. All parties want Peace but it must be a ‘Just Peace’ starting with a Cease Fire at current front line positions. Russia has stated NO CEASE FIRE and WE WILL TAKE TERRITORY BY FORCE if not given by Ukraine. Therefore with the amended USA Peace Plan, there is no possibility of an Agreement at present unless Russia is willing to compromise on some points for ending the War. The USA Administration want Peace in Ukraine as a matter of urgency, like the Europeans and Ukraine. However the USA see big Commercial Advantages with Russia and the invitation to re join the G7 Nations as part of a Post War USA Commercial Plan. This USA Commercial Plan appears to be driving the overall Peace Plan, which may not be in Ukraines or Europe’s best interest.
USA Far East Alliances in Preference to Europeans
As part of the USA NSS it is focusing on the Far East Alliances, such as India, Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia, whilst communicating with China regarding the South China Sea, Taiwan and USA China trade relationships. At the same time as we have discussed, a waning USA interest in European Alliances and the commitment to NATO, where USA military forces may be withdrawn and redeployed toward the USA and maybe the Far East.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that President Trump and his USA Administration have changed the world order over the past one year and it is likely to continue for at least another three years. I think that this is a wake up call to the whole world and especially Europe that the USA changing its priorities to benefit the USA in a ‘USA First’ policy, in all of its future activities. How this will manifest itself in the coming months and years only time and circumstances will tell. Its time for Europe which the USA says its a non-entity to assert itself in the world as a World Power without the USA.
Over the last 12 months the Europeans have come to the conclusion that their relationship with the Untied States of America (USA) has changed significantly in many ways. It appears that the Europeans have realised that the support that the USA has given over the past 80 years, is decreasing due to USA internal policy changes. This is related to the relationship with Europe, including the approach to the Ukraine situation and other matters. Many European Leaders of the larger Countries, such as Germany, France Italy Spain part of the European Union and the United Kingdom are ensuring that their input to matters such as Ukraine are taken into consideration. By doing so this is causing a European dilemma of the future relationship with the USA.
The Ukraine Situation
The map above shows the Ukraine/Russia situation as at 29 November 2025. Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, however the other occupied areas is as a result of the war since 2021. In the early part of the war Ukraine in 2021 pushed Russia out of the invasion areas in the north. Russia has gained little ground in the 4 regions ( Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk), over the past 2 years owing to the strong defence by the Ukrainians. In addition to these front lines, Russia has and still is launching significant air assaults on civilian accommodation, Energy Facilities and Infrastructure. It was believed by Russia that they could take all of Ukraine very quickly in 2021. They were wrong so they decided they want all of the 4 regions and Crimea for the time being.
European and USA Support
The Ukrainians had significant support including weapons ammunition, air defence systems and intelligence at the start of the war in 2021 from the USA, UK, EU and others allowing the Ukrainians to defend themselves and push the Russian invaders in the north out of Ukraine and back into Russia. In the previous USA Administration the USA played a significant role in the support function. However the new USA Administration’s policy on Ukraine has impacted the support chain, requiring the European to bare more of the support function. Another major change by the USA is that they will sell weapons to Europe for them to distribute to Ukraine. The USA are also looking to have payment in time to come for the support provided by the previous administration (green) which at the time no payment was expected. The Europeans and the UK, on the other hand have and still are providing support Free Of Charge (FOC) to the Ukrainians.
Push For Peace
The recent additional movement for Russia to stop the war against Ukraine was by the USA and Russia’s 28 point plan being formulated without Ukraine or Europe being involved. This war involves Ukraine and Europe through its support. A meeting was called for by Europe and Ukraine as well as the USA in Geneva Switzerland. It was clear that the ’28 point Peace Plan’ originated from the demands of the Russians for all of their requirements to be met. However the Europeans and Ukraine insisted on some changes including the right of Ukraine to decide to apply for NATO membership in the longer term. It also had the right to have an army big enough to protect itself initially at a later date but with Security Guarantees from the USA and the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ headed by the UK and France. However, more importantly is the insistence by Russia for Ukraine to give up the territory and its people in the 4 Regions that Russia has not taken by force. The Ukrainians, Europeans, UK and the many members of the Coalition of the Willing do not agree that this should be done as these are fortified defence positions (Green).
The Forced Dilemma
As part of the dilemma the USA are trying to force this part and other parts of the so called ’28 point Peace Plan’ through and give Russia almost everything they want. This also includes removing all USA sanctions on Russia and allow the to join the G7 nations to G8. The real dilemma is if the Ukrainians, Europeans, UK and the many members of the Coalition of the Willing do not agree that this should be done and the Russians reject the Peace Plan and continues the war, what will the USA Administration do? It has been floated by the USA Administration that they would stop all weapons deliveries to Europe together with other support facilities like Intelligence information to Ukraine. They may also want repayment from Ukraine for the previous weapons and support much quicker. They would most certainly block any move for Ukraine to join NATO. It will also leave Europe including the UK and the Coalition of the Willing to continue support for Ukraine without the USA.
Is it Time for Europe to Lead
Europe including the UK have a collective decision to make, that is to accept that the USA is no longer a reliable partner, which has already been voiced by some European Countries Leaders. It is time for Europe to Lead and look out for themselves and Ukraine, in resisting Russia’s advancement and to support Ukraine to defend itself. In addition, Europe must defend its borders too. Many Leaders of the larger European Countries have recognised that fact already and are taking action to increase their defence requirements. This will of course include a reduced NATO maybe without the USA. However, even without the USA Europe must also continue to find a solution to stop the war in Ukraine as soon as possible to stop the huge loss of life on both sides. This will be difficult as Russia wants all of Ukraine not just the regions discussed and is not really interested in a Lasting Peace or Cease Fire. Militarily giving up the 4 Regions to Russia, will create a spring board to further attacks by Russia to gain full control of Ukraine.
Will Ukraine Be forced to Accept Regions Handover?
As I am composing this article as the Ukrainians are on the way to the USA for talks on the 28 Point Peace Plan with the USA Administration. This meeting appears to be the USA forcing Ukraine to accept all of terms including the Regions Handover to Russia. Whilst Ukraine wants peace they will have to decide the outcome of this meeting. Whilst they have the backing of all Europe, UK and other parties not to accept the Regions Handover, the Ukrainians are in a very difficult position. Although there is a promise of Security Guarantees, we have seen the USA ignore them like the Nonnuclear and the 2014 Russia take over of Crimea. Therefore even with the aid of the Europeans, if Russia attacks again, Ukraine will be on their own and Europe, UK and NATO Countries, especially Poland and the Balkens will be under threat by Russia. So there are two outcomes; Ukraine Signs Agreement under Duress and Russia Wins or Ukraine does Not Sign Agreement under Duress and War Goes on with possible Loss of USA Support.
Conclusion
This situation is a Dilemma for Ukraine, Europe, UK, Coalition of the Willing and NATO due to the USA who appears to favour Russia over their long time Allies to stop the War. All of the above except for Russia want to end this War but the current approach by the USA is Appeasement just like 1939 all over again. As we have seen that in the days to come there will be the likelihood of the 2 Options outlined above, both which are difficult ways forward. However, I feel that not signing the USA Russia Agreement sends a message to both, that Ukraine, Europe, UK, Coalition of the Willing and NATO will defend their Sovereignty and Borders whatever the cost against Russian Aggregation. God Help the Ukrainian People!
This article read is long and complex as is the Uncertain World we live in.
I was born in February 1941 in Gateshead, England during World War Two (WWII) which was in its second year. At that time it was an ‘Uncertain World’ as we did not know the outcome of WWII. During this time a major part of Europe was under Nazi control and expanding. Great Britain was under constant bombing by the Nazi’s especially London called the Blitz. It was the Royal Air Force that blunted the daylight attacks, which forced most of the bombing to be done at night. However, it was uncertain whether Great Britain would be invaded by the Nazi’s. This uncertainty was in some respect predictable due to a war time period which was different to today’s ‘Uncertain World’.
Today’s Local Wars and Potential Conflicts
Today we have at least two local wars causing much uncertainty in the world. The major war between Ukraine and Russia started by Russia to try to gain full control Ukraine. The Israel and the Palestinians conflict in Gaza. In terms of international potential conflicts, the main Countries involved are Iran, Taiwan, North Korea. The main uncertainty is not the conflicts themselves but the ‘Political Reactions’ to these by the major world powers.
Political Reactions of the Local Wars
Most of the Uncertainty in the World is caused by the ‘Political Reactions’ of the USA, Europe, Russia and China, which are actively involved with current and potential conflicts. Let us look at the Political Reactions for the following:
Ukraine and Russia
The history of Ukraine/Russia relationship is a very complex one. However, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation from Russia. As part of that agreement Ukraine gave up its Nuclear Weapons. Ukraine was leaning towards becoming a European Union Member. There was much pro Russian unrest in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions which Russia took full advantage of 2014. They organized pro Russian Independence referendums. However, the Ukraine government Army and Pro Russian Fighters started the conflict. At the same time Russia Annexed Crimea. The USA and its Allies ‘Political Reactions’ were to apply Sanctions on Russia and to provide significant aid to Ukraine, including financial assistance, humanitarian supplies, and military equipment. There was no offer from the USA to be involved militarily against Russia. To date the USA and Allies have not recognised the Crimea annexation.
On 21 February 2019, the Constitution of Ukraine was amended, to allow Ukraine a Sovereign Country to apply for membership in the European Union and NATO. On 21 April 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected president of Ukraine. In July 2020 Ukraine, and NATO members Poland and Lithuania signed a cooperation pact. On 2 February 2021, a Presidential Decree banned the Television broadcasting of the pro-Russian TV channels in Ukraine. The ‘Political Reactions’ were accepted by the USA and its Allies as Ukraine as a Sovereign Country could make its own decisions in accordance with their Constitution. However, Russia’s ‘Political Reactions’ was fury and it decided it could not accept Ukraine being part of the EU or NATO as they viewed Ukraine as being part of Russia like the Soviet Union days.
On Feb 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine in the East into Zaporizhia and Kherson and North East into Kyiv and Kharkiv from Belarus a Russian Ally. The initial attack in all areas was heroically repelled by Ukrainian Forces. Once again the USA under the President Biden administration and its Allies ‘Political Reactions’ decided not to get involved militarily against Russia but to provide a huge amount of Military Equipment and Ammunition to support the Ukrainian Forces to defend themselves against Russian aggression.
Situation in early 2022 after Russia invaded UkraineSituation in May 2025 showing blue areas where Ukraine Forces Counterattacked Russian Forces (red).
However , since President Trump and his administration took over in January 2025, there is a great deal of Uncertainty of the USA’s ‘Political Reactions’ in respect of the support for Ukraine. The Allies including the UK, Europe, Canada, Japan and others ‘Political Reactions’ is to continue and even increase the support for Ukraine including military equipment and ammunition. However, the USA, ‘Political Reactions’ to date has been driven by President Trump saying he wants Peace but at the same time he has stopped supporting with Military Aid and citicising Ukraine and has appeared to support the Russian, Putin’s, narrative. The Russians want to take over 20% of eastern Ukraine including Crimea, recognised as part of Russia, no Ukraine Military or NATO or EU membership , all accepted by the USA and the rest of the world to achieve Peace. Ukraine, UK, Europe and Allies do not accept this way forward. The initial USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ was to agree with Russia that Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO. The question now is, will the USA’s, ‘Political Reactions’ be, to withdraw support for Military and Financial Aid and as President Trump said recently “They hate each other, and they’re fighting in a park, and you try and pull them apart. They don’t want to be pulled. Sometimes you’re better off letting them fight for a while and then pulling them apart.” UK, Europe and Allies were disgusted at this ‘Political Reaction’ but have yet have to wait for more ‘Political Reactions’ from the USA and President Trump, which may determine, if Ukraine survives as Sovereign Country or eventually becomes part of Russia.
Israel and Palestinians
The Israel and Palestinians conflict is a even more Complex situation that the Ukrainian one. However they have one thing in common, History!!! This article refers to the situation between Israel and the Palestinians after the incursion of the Palestinian Hamas Group from the Gaza Strip crossed into Israel killing 1200 people and taking 250 hostages on October 7th 2023.
The ‘Political Reaction’ by 44 Countries including the USA and its Allies was swift in condemning this incursion in the strongest possible terms. The Israel Armed Forces retaliated by first of all carrying out Bombing Gaza and then sending Ground Troops into Gaza to go after Hamas and recover the Hostages. This was supported by the USA and Allies as a reasonable response to the Attack of October the 7th. It was thought that this would be a limited operation based upon a ‘Political Reaction’ of Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, but this turned into nightmare situation no one had really expected.
Benjamin Netanyahu
During the USA’s President Biden administration the USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ was to allow the Israeli action to continue with negotiations between Hamas and Israel regarding the return of the Hostages and Palestinian Prisoner swap. However, this was very slow and did not achieve the release of many Hostages. Over the past 2 years of the Hamas, Israeli War, the destruction of the Gaza Strip has been extensive with over 50,000 Palestinian Civilians including Children being killed and many more injured by Israel. Some living and deceased Hostages have been released but not all.
The President Trump administration ‘Political Reaction’ so far has continued the support for Israeli action but President Trump has made some very contentious suggestions, such as; ‘Moving all of the Palestinians out of Gaza and making the Gaza Strip the ‘Riviera of Gaza’. There has been continued effort for a Cease Fire and the release of all the Hostages living and deceased but without much success. The other major current situation is that Israel will not allow Humanitarian Aid including Food, Water and Medical Supplies into Gaza. It appears that the USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ is uncertain and is waiting for more details from President Trump and his administration.
Political Reactions of the Potential Conflicts
There are three areas of the world that have the Potential for Conflict, Taiwan and the South China Sea, North Korea and Iran and the ‘Political Reactions’ of those Countries involved.
Taiwan and the South China Sea
The ‘Political Reactions’ of China towards Taiwan and the South China Sea are paramount in this Potential Conflict. From the map below it will be seen that China claims that almost all of the South China Sea and Taiwan belongs to them (red line). This claim has been dismissed by the Worlds Courts, ruling that other Countries have jurisdiction over their own parts of the South China Sea, however China does not accept this ruling.
Taiwan was taken over from the Japanese after the WWII ended in 1945 by the Nationalist Republic of China (ROC) with the ROC Government moving out of China in 1949 due to the Communist (Mao Zedong) take over of China. It has never been ruled by the Communist China Government. However the ‘Political Reaction’ of the Communist China Government and its President Xi Jinping is adamant that Taiwan belongs to Communist China. Taiwan has it own Government and Armed Forces and is Autonomous operating under an agreed ‘One China Policy’ that allows Taiwan to operate separately but not as an Independent Country. However more recently President Xi Jinping’s ‘Political Reaction’ is increasingly aggressive surrounding Taiwan and involving frequent Military Drills and Exercises, including Simulated Attacks on the island, and intimidating Taiwan and its population against Independence moves.
The Chinese Navy Ships
During previous USA administrations the ‘Political Reaction’ was to provide Taiwan with Weapons and Aircraft for their defence and if necessary the USA and its Far East Allies would come to the aid of Taiwan if China attempted to invade. However, President Trump and his administrations ‘Political Reaction’ is uncertain in regard to coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of an attack by China. However, the provision of Military resources from the USA for Taiwan’s defence still seems to be ongoing.
In addition to the Taiwan Potential Conflict the associated South China Sea issues could also be a source of ‘Potential Conflict’ between China and the other Countries that have claims on their parts of the South China Sea. Another important issue is the right of Free Navigation and Passage by all other Nations in the world through the South China Sea. This of course applies to the USA and its Allies such as Japan and South Korea. At present the ‘Political Reaction’ to this situation by the USA and its Allies, is that all Commercial Shipping is not impeded and that, USA and its Allies Military Ships regularly undertake Freedom of Navigation through the Taiwan Straits and the whole of the South China Sea. China’s ‘Political Reaction’ is against the Freedom of Navigation movements through the South China Sea, and especially through the Taiwan Straits. It is again uncertain whether the USA’s President Trump’s administration will continue this ‘Political Reaction’.
Just recently the Chinese Navy has been undertaking Military Exercises close to the Australian and New Zealand recognised Sea Boundaries, without any notification to Australia and New Zealand. This has caused great concern especially regarding Commercial Air Travel and Shipping. Both these countries ‘Political Reaction’ has called for an explanation from China. Additionally, China is now operating its 2 Aircraft Carriers and supporting ships in the Pacific and South China Sea near Japan. A 3rd Chinese Aircraft Carrier the ‘Fujian’ is on Sea Trials increasing the Sea Power of China in the Far East. Japan is increasingly worried that the present USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ is not to confront China Militarily but cooperate with China Commercially.
The Chinese Aircraft Carrier ‘Fujian’
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)
As a result of the Korean War in the 1950’s North Korea has been aligned with Communist China and Russia. Over the years North Korea has acquired Nuclear and Chemical weapons. In the last Trump Presidency 2018 he tried to pursued the young Kim Jong Un Leader of North Korea to dispense with his Nuclear Arsenal without success. President Trump has the idea that he is friends with Kim Jong Un. However, in 2025 the increasing good relationship between Kim Jong Un and President Putin has resulted in North Korea providing Military Men and Arms to Russia to fight against Ukraine. The USA Allies ‘Political Reaction’ to this, has been verbal condemning North Korea. However, there has been a great deal of uncertainty what the USA’s ‘Political Reaction’ has been due to so called friendship between President Trump and Kim Jong Un. Kim Jong Un’s ‘Political Reaction’ has to build up his Nuclear Weapons, Navy and Land Forces, which is creating the Potential for Conflict.
Islamic Republic of Iran
Iran also known as Persia is recognised as being the ‘Cradle of Civilisation’ being one of the oldest inhabited places on Earth. Iran is the most influential Countries in the Middle East supporting Proxies including Hamas, which opposes Israel. Recently there were Missile and Aircraft Attacks between Israel and Iran, however their was an agreement to stop further attacks on each other. To date they are not thought to possess a Nuclear Weapon but does have the means to do so. The USA and Allies ‘Political Reaction’ is to prevent Iran having a Nuclear Weapon. New talks are ongoing with Iran and the USA however, the outcome could develop into a major Conflict between Iran and the USA its Allies and Israel.
Uncertainty and the Political Reactions
We have seen that the Countries and their relationship with each other is creating a very Unstable Condition throughout the World. Since the re-election of President Trump that Uncertainty has appeared to increase due to his administrations ‘Political Reactions’. In addition the increased ‘Political Reaction’ by China and Russia in particular are also causing Uncertainty. With these major World Powers being almost directly opposed to each other the Possibility of Conflict between them is increased. We can only hope and pray that never happens.
Thank you for taking the time to read this complex and long article
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